Big Brown, Eight Belles

Before I get to my thoughts on Big Brown and the Kentucky Derby, I would be remiss if I didn't mention the unfortunate breakdown of Eight Belles during her gallop out after the race. As someone who owns racehorses, I can say that there is nothing any of the connections- owner, trainer, or jockey, thinks about more than the safety of their horse, no matter what the race. It is the first thing you think about when the gates open and the last thing you think about when the race is over. Many writers, most of whom spend barely any time covering the sport outside of a couple of Saturdays in May, believe the connections made a foolish choice in running Eight Belles in this race, but the truth is there was no way of knowing what could have happened before the race.

There is nothing inherently dangerous in racing fillies and mares against the opposite sex; in fact, it happens more often then you might think, especially at the higher levels of the sport. Ouija Board, Rags to Riches, and Xtra Heat are just some of the more recent examples of fillies than ran, and won, against their male counterparts. Of course, the problem is that when the average sports fan thinks of fillies running against colts, they will invariably think of Ruffian, who broke down in a much hyped match race 30 years ago, and now Eight Belles. Two incidences in 30 years, however, do not make a trend.

More importantly, though, is that there are major, major issues in the sport of thoroughbred racing, issues that need to be addressed. The problem is that the media, and to a greater degree PETA, have absolutely no idea what these issues are or how to resolve them. PETA, for example, believes the "crocodile tears" of Eight Belles connections hide their true intentions, to make as much money as possible by exploiting helpless animals. Perhaps if the leaders of PETA did, say, five minutes of research into the sport, they would realize that A) horsemen care passionately about their horses, not just as racing prospects but as animals, and B) the vast majority of owners lose money owning horses, and except for the upper echelon of trainers and jockeys, most backstretch workers are living paycheck to paycheck. Even great jockeys and trainers have bad years, and when they do, they simply do not make much money.

As I said though, there are major issues in the sport, and if PETA were to realize that every person involved in horse racing isn't an evil, soulless rich person looking to exploit animals, they could effect change as an impartial outsider working together with horsemen who also care about the well being of the animals. While the media endlessly drones on about switching to a synthetic dirt surface (which, while promising in that it has reduced breakdowns at tracks, has also increased other issues with horses, including hoof problems and tendon issues which can lead to breakdowns down the road), or not racing a horse until he is three, four or even five years old, nobody talks about one of the biggest problems facing the sport: the two year old in training sales in the winter and spring.

The horses in these sales, many of them still under 2 years old (although, for the purposes of the sport, every horse born before January 1st has their first birthday on New Year's day), are asked to work out, usually twice, often times an eight of a mile and a quarter mile as fast as possible. As the industry over the past 20 years has changed from more home-bred horses to more horses bought at these sales, a lot of these horses are rushed at an early age to work fast, and too often given drugs either to mask an injury or to make a horse look more physically imposing.

This is one of the parts of the business where the economics don't always match up with the best interests of the horse, and therefore something PETA could be active in to make a change. It isn't in the farms best interests to regulate themselves, as a flashy colt who works a snappy time can sell for six or even seven figures. Two years ago, The Green Monkey worked the fastest eight of a mile of any horse at his sale, and was sold for $16 million dollars (although the actual sale was for less money, as a deal was already in place for the colt). The horse never turned out to be much of anything; he was recently retired, still a maiden. But from a breeder's standpoint, there is a great incentive to breed and train horses like this, even if it is detrimental to the long term development of the horse.

Of course, it would probably be asking too much from either PETA or the average sports journalist to address this issue, but it really is something that could drastically change the sport for the better. Perhaps if horses were not rushed to make the sales, not asked to run as fast a quarter mile as their developing bodies can, and not pumped full of drugs, the breed could become more sound and durable. Sadly, though, I fear that is not something that will happen anytime soon.

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As for Big Brown... well, what can you say? He clearly is the best horse of his generation, and the question becomes whether he regresses over the next four weeks or if another three year old can step up to the plate and really challenge Big Brown. As for the latter, a very interesting match could be developing for the Belmont Stakes, between Big Brown and Casino Drive. Casino Drive, for those of you who don't know (which I would assume is everybody, except that I am the only person who reads this blog, so I guess that means nobody), is out of the dam Better than Honour, who has foaled the last TWO Belmont Winners, Jazil and Rags to Riches. Casino Drive broke his maiden in Japan by over 11 lengths, but hasn't raced since, so it will be interesting to see how he fares tomorrow in the Peter Pan, but if he does well he could pose Big Brown's biggest obstacle for racing immortality.

But back to Big Brown for a moment. Kent Desormeaux deserves a lot of credit for his ride in the Derby, as he was able to work out to a T the trip I'm sure both he and Dutrow were hoping for when they chose post 20. Big Brown was able to stay clear of horses throughout the entire trip, while only being 3-4 wide. It's not often that 3-4 wide is where you want to be, but in a 20 horse field 3-4 wide without traffic is really all you can ask for, especially if you have the best horse in the field. He was also able to work out a nice breather down the back stretch, all while hanging around close to the leaders, and when it was time to run, there was never any doubt that Big Brown would win for fun.

The question becomes, exactly how good is Big Brown, and can be become an all time great? In terms of pure speed figures, his numbers are on par with other Derby winners over the past decade, which leads you to believe he might not be a lock to win the Triple Crown. The wild card is that this is one of the weakest crops of three year olds to run in the triple crown races in a very long time. All winter, handicappers, including myself, tried to figure out why the times for all of the prep races were so slow. Was it the synthetic tracks? Was it the early pace of the race being too slow? Nope, turns out these horses are just slow. One of the things lost with the breakdown of Eight Belles was that she was much, much faster than every horse in the race not named Big Brown. Earlier in the year, both Proud Spell and Indian Blessing, two fillies, ran faster at the same distance on the same day at the Fair Grounds as Pyro did in the Louisiana Derby. That is not to take anything away from these fillies, all of them are nice in their own right, but in a normal year they would not be able to match up to their male counterparts, let alone dominate them.

As for the Preakness, it looks as though the field is going to be light, and Big Brown will be the monster favorite, perhaps as low as 1/2 or 2/5. Rick Dutrow normally does not like to wheel his horses back with 13 days rest, but he has no choice this time, and that may be something to watch. Still, at this point I would be somewhat surprised if Big Brown wasn't able to handle these horses on 13 hours rest, let alone 13 days. If fatigue were to be an issue, my guess is that it would show up turning for home in the Belmont. As for how good Big Brown is, you can't yet put him above a horse like Barbaro, who won stakes on turf and dirt, or even a horse like Point Given who won triple crown races against superior foes. All that being said, Big Brown is clearly a freak, and perhaps the scariest part about his abilities is that he has every right to keep getting better, as most horses do early in his career. He didn't bob and weave down the stretch in the Derby like he did during the Florida Derby, and if he keeps putting the pieces together mentally while physically growing stronger, it won't matter what horses he faces over the next four weeks.

Breeders Cup Friday Picks

Here are my thoughts on the three Friday races... of course, these pick are GUARANTEED, or your money back!

Filly and Mare Sprint-

The Breeders Cup kicks off this year with a showdown between multiple Grade I winner DREAM RUSH and upstart LA TRAVIATA, whose is making only her fourth lifetime start. That lack of experience I believe will ultimately cost her a chance at a win, as she has never been challenged on the lead in her brief career. As for Dream Rush, I think she has a great shot at winning. Truthfully, despite winning two Grade I's in her career, she hasn't exactly faced a great filly yet, but she also hasn't done anything wrong. Her two losses were by a length or less, one of which was an allowance race where the connections intentionally held her back a bit to let her get some dirt get kicked in her face (she ended up being boxed in through most of the stretch and ran out of room). I think that experience will help her tomorrow. While she has been on the lead most of her career, again I believe that is because she hasn't faced super fast fillies yet, but will be perfectly content sitting a length or so off the pace if need be. Her breeding for the slop (410 Tomlinson) can't hurt, either.

Still, at odds of 5/2 or less, I can't blame anyone for trying to beat her. MARYFIELD and OPRAH WINNEY may be the best options. Both are coming into this race in top form, and both have an affinity for an off surface. Both will likely be stalking the expected hot pace, which may prove to be the spot to be. It will be important to see how speed favoring the track is playing tomorrow. With the expected rain tonight and tomorrow, it is very possible the track may have an extreme speed bias (imagine having mud kicked in YOUR face for half a mile or more), which would potentially hurt Maryfield, as she more likely to be more off the pace. Still, I think both horses should have a good account for themselves tomorrow.

The bet-

$10 win DREAM RUSH
$5 exacta box DREAM RUSH over MARYFIELD and OPRAH WINNEY

Juvenile Turf-

Boy is this race hard to figure... not only 2 yr olds tough to figure in general, throw in the fact that many of these have yet to face each other AND they will be racing over a yielding sod, and you have a recipe for a real long shot. As always in these races, you have to favor the Euros coming over, who are generally much better on the grass, and the best of those appears to be STRIKE THE DEAL. The Grade II winner is coming into this race off of a strong 2nd in a Grade I in England after being in tight quarters coming for home. His sire, Van Nistelrooy, is an interesting young Storm Cat sire whose progeny have done well on the dirt and turf (even the Del Mar "surface"). He looks to be a deserving favorite, and although I would prefer trying to hit a bomb in this one, if he's at 9/2 or better as his morning line suggests, I think he is worth a shot.

ACHILL ISLAND is another Euro invader who deserves a long look. His last race was a close 2nd at Ascot over a soft going, which should set him up well tomorrow. He may vie for favoritism, and also might be worth a look if his odds drift up towards 5/1 or more. If you need a US colt, either THE LEOPARD, a 2.5 million dollar Storm Cat colt who wired the field in the Pilgrim, or GIO PONTI, the Bourbon winner, are worth a shot at 10 to 1 or more. If you want to go with an exacta or trifecta bet, I think you need to throw in some long shots underneath, as this race is likely to have some bombs hit the board.

The bet-

$10 Win/Place STRIKE THE DEAL
$5 Win/Place GIO PONTI

Dirt Mile-

This race is just loaded with question marks. Eleven months ago, there was a legitimate case to be made that DISCREET CAT was in fact the best 3YO on the planet, even better than Barbaro and Bernardini. Undefeated and fresh off of an ultra impressive Cigar Mile score at the big A, Discreet Cat looked unstoppable heading into his 4YO season. Of course, that horse has yet to show up in 2007, making this race wide open. If the Discreet Cat of old shows up, he wins, but my guess is that he doesn't. At this point, you have to be concerned that he has had FOUR lengthy layoffs in his career already, and run in only 8 races in 26 months. I'm sure he needed his last race and it may set him up well tomorrow, but at 2/1 I'm not interested in finding out.

If you really want a horse that on his best day is very tough, why not try HIGH FINANCE at much longer odds. As someone affiliated with West Point Thoroughbreds (I am a part owner in a few horses they syndicate, none of which are running this weekend), I have followed this horse his entire career, and he is flat out a weird dude. Sometimes he seems to have no interest and will throw in the towel despite setting moderate fractions. Other times, he'll go 21 and 44 and still be full or run. I have absolutely no idea which High Finance shows up tomorrow, but if the latter does, he will be very tough to beat at very high odds.

There is a ton of speed in this race, so it could fall apart for a horse like CORINTHIAN, who should be comfortably off of the pace. He too is another frustrating horse to root for, as he seems to have a world of talent but hasn't been terribly consistent. The cutback in distance should help him, though, and he should be flying at the end.

The bet-

$10 Win/Place HIGH FINANCE
$10 Exacta box HIGH FINANCE and CORINTHIAN

As Breeders Cup Looms, Look for Value

Granted, I'm sure most people reading this blog are slightly more interested in college football than the sport of kings, but as horse racing's biggest day draws near, I can think of several reasons why you should be very interested in the Breeders Cup this Saturday.

1) For the first time in recent memory, essentially all of the major players in the Triple Crown races of the spring will be running in the Classic, the 5 million dollar crowning jewel of BC day. Although Belmont champ Rags to Riches is out with an injury, Street Sense, Curlin, Hard Spun, Any Given Saturday, and Tiago will face there elders in a battle that will almost certainly determine horse of the year honors.

2) Most of the marquee matchups this weekend in college football take place either before or after the BC races are run. Granted, Florida does play Georgia at 3:30 (apparently there is some history there) and USC and Oregon mix it up at 3 PM, but compared to recent weeks there isn't too much on tap between 1 and 6:30 on Saturday. For those used to watching 10 TV's at a time at a bar on a Saturday afternoon, I certainly think the Breeders Cup will offer more excitement than Akron at Buffalo.

3) 24.63

What is this number, you ask? Only the average payout for a two dollar win bet at last year's Breeders Cup. That's right, on average the winning horse paid odds of more than 11 to 1. Many exactas paid hundreds if not thousands of dollars, and the pick-6 paid a shade under 2 million dollars. Not bad for picking a few horses to come in first, huh? The great thing about the BC is you can make a few small bets, have some fun, and potentially win a nice chunk of change.

Throughout the week, I am going to post my thoughts on each of the BC races, but for now, here are some of my thoughts on how you should go about handicapping this weekend.

A- Don't be afraid to take chances, and don't be afraid to take a stand against a favorite.

This is a day to determine champions, so the only way I would endorse a favorite is if I really believe that horse is a champion. There will be a couple of favorites that will win this weekend, but there will be many more that lose, and hitting even one of those races will make the difference between a winning day and a losing one.

B) Forget the speed bias

You are going to here a lot of "experts" talk about the enormous speed bias at Monmouth, and that horses are going to have a very tough timing winning from off of the pace. While I think Monmouth probably has a minor bias towards horses with early speed (as most dirt race tracks do), this track isn't exactly the old Keeneland strip or even Arlington Park from over the summer. Horses can and will win from off the pace, potentially at big odds because of this supposed bias that will scare bettors away. Monmouth reminds me a lot of Pimlico in that people insist there is a speed bias every Preakness, but the truth is the "bias" is more a result of the types of animals that fill most of the races at these tracks.

C) Go west, young man!

I am intrigued by some of the West Coast invaders this year from a value standpoint. From a speed figure perspective, many of the horses look a cut below their East Coast and Midwest counterparts, but I am not so sure that is case. Del Mar installed a new synthetic track over the summer and the results were, well, interesting. The track was much safer for the horses than the old dirt track, and that of course is the most important thing, but the track played very odd. Final times were considerably slower than at almost any other track in the country, even though the horses at Del Mar are some of the best in the world. The Pacific Classic was run in a comical 2:07, which is about 5-7 seconds slower than what would be expected for this kind of horse. Thats about 25-35 lengths slower than expected, or around the distance Secretariat run the Belmont by! Student Council earned a 99 Beyer for his efforts, but like pretty much every other race at Del Mar this summer, that number is at best an educated guess. The truth is, that race very well might have been run in a very swift time, or very slow, but there is really no way of knowing. For some reason, the speed figures awarded to horses at Del Mar were generally lower than normal, which leads me to believe that a lot of horses shipping from California might be overlooked.