The Ship of Fools

Obama Girl - Is she happy with Joe Biden as Veep?

2008-08-23T13:46:00.002-04:00

A day in the life of a college football fan

2008-08-23T00:01:00.003-04:00

I'm busting at the seams!! I'm so excited I can hardly keep a thought in my head before inevitably day dreaming about IT. What is IT you may ask? IT is college football kids! It's that time of year; the air smells sweeter, food tastes better, and I've got a little extra pep to my step. It's the symbolic start of Autumn and for me and my pals, it's like Christmas and our birthdays all rolled into one. The season officially kicks off in 5 days, and although I will certainly be glued to the tube, those games are just something to wet my whistle before the sensory overloading Saturday. As much as I look forward to the season, my 1st football Saturday ritual is just as important. Here's a glimpse of my day based on a few years of experience.

Saturday morning will start with a quick trip to the gym just to get the blood flowing (and realistically to offset some of the damage i'll be doing to my body later). I Tivo college gameday so I can zip past the commercials and the occasional puff piece. Herby and the crew make their picks and Corso throws on the home mascot's head to get the fans fired up (it's the sort of thing that will piss me off by week 6, but come next Saturday, that goofy bastard's schtick will be pure gold!). If I were a gambling man, now would be the time I jump online to make some last minute picks of my own (can someone loan me $100, I'll explain later For the love of God I just need $200 to get back on track. $500 should do the trick, I'm good for it I swear!).

By now it's noon and I get the Picture-In-Picture going for the 1st half of the early games. At halftime, I make my way to my favorite local watering hole to meet up with the boys and compare picks. The happiest moment of the year occurs as I walk through that door. 50 TVs line the walls of this college football mecca, and as I saunter in I'm greeted by the bar's foul-mouthed yet loveable owner, smile on his face, clipboard full of games in tow. He gives us free reign over the plasmas in our vacinity and we make good use of them. I order up a Guinness and some wings, cause I'm gonna be here for a while. For the next few hours our heads look like oscillating fans scanning from monitor to monitor as we take in 5 or more games at once while occasionally feeling around for a mug (and no the law of diminishing returns does not apply to college football. That is a defeatist attitude, and we will not have that in our bar). Lastly, any week 1 Saturday would be incomplete without the debates.

Who's the team to beat? What conference looks best top to bottom? What Heisman hopefuls do we like? Will the Irish bounce back this year? Are we gonna see the Buckeyees in national championship again? If so, will they be crushed by the SEC champs again? Is Tim Tebow the 2nd coming of Jesus Christ as Gator fans like to believe? (my buddy gazes at pictures of Tebow like Kathy Bates looked at James Caan in Misery!) Are some of these debates premature? Never. Just in case we're right, we wanna be able to say we told you so way back in week 1.

So the countdown begins. I just hope the day lives up to it's billing. It hasn't let me down yet!

Preakness Thoughts

2008-05-17T12:37:00.002-04:00

On a normal race day, without the hype surrounding a triple crown race, a horse like Big Brown, a standout in a large field, would most likely be either even money or perhaps 4-5. Granted, Big Brown is quite a standout, but at the same time there are horses everyday that tower over their competition and go off at much higher odds than the current 1-10 price Big Brown offers. Needless to say, when a horse's win odds offer about as much value as a nice yielding stock, it probably isn't the best bet. In fact, because of the minus pool (which basically insures that a winning bet pays a minimum of $2.10 for every $2 bet), it probably makes a lot more sense to bet Big Brown to show, and take your $2.10 instead of your $2.20 if he wins. It is amazing that both Pimlico and Magna Entertainment, who owns Pimlico, face the very real possibility of having to cover a large minus pool on the one day where a lot of money is bet on Pimlico races.

Ultimately, this just is not a great race to bet. If you are a fan of the sport, I would consider betting on a few other horses to win, with the hedge being that if Big Brown beats you, then you know you have a chance to witness history in three weeks at Belmont. If a horse like a Gayego were to run back to his Arkansas Derby, or horses like Macho Again and Kentucky Bear continue to improve, they would be within a couple of lengths of Big Brown's races. Remember, these are horses, and absolutely nothing is a sure thing. Two months ago, War Pass was 1-20 running in the Tampa Bay Derby, towering over his rivals on paper even more than Big Brown today, and he finished last without any real excuse. Barbaro was 1-2 two years ago at the Preakness, and of course we will never know what would have happened had he not broke down, but at the very least Bernardini would have given him a run for his money.

When I thought about this race earlier, I felt that even money or better would be a good price for Big Brown, which I knew would never happen because of the hype surrounding his Derby win. My feeling was he would be around 1/2, making this race a no play. At 1/10, the only play is to try to figure out who could win if Big Brown doesn't pick his feet up today. My list includes-

Macho Again
Tres Borrachos
Racecar Rhapsody
Kentucky Bear
Gayego

Big Brown, Eight Belles

2008-05-09T20:22:00.003-04:00

Before I get to my thoughts on Big Brown and the Kentucky Derby, I would be remiss if I didn't mention the unfortunate breakdown of Eight Belles during her gallop out after the race. As someone who owns racehorses, I can say that there is nothing any of the connections- owner, trainer, or jockey, thinks about more than the safety of their horse, no matter what the race. It is the first thing you think about when the gates open and the last thing you think about when the race is over. Many writers, most of whom spend barely any time covering the sport outside of a couple of Saturdays in May, believe the connections made a foolish choice in running Eight Belles in this race, but the truth is there was no way of knowing what could have happened before the race.

There is nothing inherently dangerous in racing fillies and mares against the opposite sex; in fact, it happens more often then you might think, especially at the higher levels of the sport. Ouija Board, Rags to Riches, and Xtra Heat are just some of the more recent examples of fillies than ran, and won, against their male counterparts. Of course, the problem is that when the average sports fan thinks of fillies running against colts, they will invariably think of Ruffian, who broke down in a much hyped match race 30 years ago, and now Eight Belles. Two incidences in 30 years, however, do not make a trend.

More importantly, though, is that there are major, major issues in the sport of thoroughbred racing, issues that need to be addressed. The problem is that the media, and to a greater degree PETA, have absolutely no idea what these issues are or how to resolve them. PETA, for example, believes the "crocodile tears" of Eight Belles connections hide their true intentions, to make as much money as possible by exploiting helpless animals. Perhaps if the leaders of PETA did, say, five minutes of research into the sport, they would realize that A) horsemen care passionately about their horses, not just as racing prospects but as animals, and B) the vast majority of owners lose money owning horses, and except for the upper echelon of trainers and jockeys, most backstretch workers are living paycheck to paycheck. Even great jockeys and trainers have bad years, and when they do, they simply do not make much money.

As I said though, there are major issues in the sport, and if PETA were to realize that every person involved in horse racing isn't an evil, soulless rich person looking to exploit animals, they could effect change as an impartial outsider working together with horsemen who also care about the well being of the animals. While the media endlessly drones on about switching to a synthetic dirt surface (which, while promising in that it has reduced breakdowns at tracks, has also increased other issues with horses, including hoof problems and tendon issues which can lead to breakdowns down the road), or not racing a horse until he is three, four or even five years old, nobody talks about one of the biggest problems facing the sport: the two year old in training sales in the winter and spring.

The horses in these sales, many of them still under 2 years old (although, for the purposes of the sport, every horse born before January 1st has their first birthday on New Year's day), are asked to work out, usually twice, often times an eight of a mile and a quarter mile as fast as possible. As the industry over the past 20 years has changed from more home-bred horses to more horses bought at these sales, a lot of these horses are rushed at an early age to work fast, and too often given drugs either to mask an injury or to make a horse look more physically imposing.

This is one of the parts of the business where the economics don't always match up with the best interests of the horse, and therefore something PETA could be active in to make a change. It isn't in the farms best interests to regulate themselves, as a flashy colt who works a snappy time can sell for six or even seven figures. Two years ago, The Green Monkey worked the fastest eight of a mile of any horse at his sale, and was sold for $16 million dollars (although the actual sale was for less money, as a deal was already in place for the colt). The horse never turned out to be much of anything; he was recently retired, still a maiden. But from a breeder's standpoint, there is a great incentive to breed and train horses like this, even if it is detrimental to the long term development of the horse.

Of course, it would probably be asking too much from either PETA or the average sports journalist to address this issue, but it really is something that could drastically change the sport for the better. Perhaps if horses were not rushed to make the sales, not asked to run as fast a quarter mile as their developing bodies can, and not pumped full of drugs, the breed could become more sound and durable. Sadly, though, I fear that is not something that will happen anytime soon.

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As for Big Brown... well, what can you say? He clearly is the best horse of his generation, and the question becomes whether he regresses over the next four weeks or if another three year old can step up to the plate and really challenge Big Brown. As for the latter, a very interesting match could be developing for the Belmont Stakes, between Big Brown and Casino Drive. Casino Drive, for those of you who don't know (which I would assume is everybody, except that I am the only person who reads this blog, so I guess that means nobody), is out of the dam Better than Honour, who has foaled the last TWO Belmont Winners, Jazil and Rags to Riches. Casino Drive broke his maiden in Japan by over 11 lengths, but hasn't raced since, so it will be interesting to see how he fares tomorrow in the Peter Pan, but if he does well he could pose Big Brown's biggest obstacle for racing immortality.

But back to Big Brown for a moment. Kent Desormeaux deserves a lot of credit for his ride in the Derby, as he was able to work out to a T the trip I'm sure both he and Dutrow were hoping for when they chose post 20. Big Brown was able to stay clear of horses throughout the entire trip, while only being 3-4 wide. It's not often that 3-4 wide is where you want to be, but in a 20 horse field 3-4 wide without traffic is really all you can ask for, especially if you have the best horse in the field. He was also able to work out a nice breather down the back stretch, all while hanging around close to the leaders, and when it was time to run, there was never any doubt that Big Brown would win for fun.

The question becomes, exactly how good is Big Brown, and can be become an all time great? In terms of pure speed figures, his numbers are on par with other Derby winners over the past decade, which leads you to believe he might not be a lock to win the Triple Crown. The wild card is that this is one of the weakest crops of three year olds to run in the triple crown races in a very long time. All winter, handicappers, including myself, tried to figure out why the times for all of the prep races were so slow. Was it the synthetic tracks? Was it the early pace of the race being too slow? Nope, turns out these horses are just slow. One of the things lost with the breakdown of Eight Belles was that she was much, much faster than every horse in the race not named Big Brown. Earlier in the year, both Proud Spell and Indian Blessing, two fillies, ran faster at the same distance on the same day at the Fair Grounds as Pyro did in the Louisiana Derby. That is not to take anything away from these fillies, all of them are nice in their own right, but in a normal year they would not be able to match up to their male counterparts, let alone dominate them.

As for the Preakness, it looks as though the field is going to be light, and Big Brown will be the monster favorite, perhaps as low as 1/2 or 2/5. Rick Dutrow normally does not like to wheel his horses back with 13 days rest, but he has no choice this time, and that may be something to watch. Still, at this point I would be somewhat surprised if Big Brown wasn't able to handle these horses on 13 hours rest, let alone 13 days. If fatigue were to be an issue, my guess is that it would show up turning for home in the Belmont. As for how good Big Brown is, you can't yet put him above a horse like Barbaro, who won stakes on turf and dirt, or even a horse like Point Given who won triple crown races against superior foes. All that being said, Big Brown is clearly a freak, and perhaps the scariest part about his abilities is that he has every right to keep getting better, as most horses do early in his career. He didn't bob and weave down the stretch in the Derby like he did during the Florida Derby, and if he keeps putting the pieces together mentally while physically growing stronger, it won't matter what horses he faces over the next four weeks.

Breaking down the Derby

2008-05-01T22:05:00.006-04:00

Here is a look at the pros and cons of each derby contender, listed by post position...

1) Cool Coal Man

Pros- Zito horse is 3 for 4 from the rail, always a good sign, especially for a younger horse who might not appreciate being squeezed into the rail. Fountain of Youth winner didn't appreciate the synthetic surface, but if you throw that race out (as many bettors will do with Pyro), then he seems to fit well. By Mineshaft, this 200K yearling purchase is one of the better bred horses in the field and should appreciate the distance more than most.

Cons- The question is whether you want to ignore the Blue Grass, which was certainly a clunker. He stalked modest fractions, but was still nowhere to be found by the 1/8th pole. He also loses Desormeaux, and while Leparoux is certainly capable of winning, it is a little disconcerting that this is now his 6th jockey in 9 races.

Final word- Talented colt could work out a real nice trip with no speed directly to his outside, and will probably be overlooked at long odds. Certainly playable underneath

2) Tale of Ekati

Pros- The only dual qualifier in the field (a duel qualifier is essentially a horse that ran well as a 2YO, but also has a low dosage index, indicating he is bred to run longer), this horse was a monster at two in New York, and bounced back nicely after a disappointing Louisiana Derby where he broke very poorly to win the Wood over champion War Pass. His female side is probably the classiest of any horse in the field, and even a novice racing fan knows Barclay Tagg always is a live threat to win a big race.

Cons- Despite winning the Grade I Wood last out, his Beyers are really on the light side for a legit contender. He had something of a dream trip in that race, sitting comfortable off of War Pass' fast fractions before collaring him in the stretch. The track was drying out, which at times can make it very tiring, but that final furlong in almost 14 seconds is extremely slow. Tale of the Cat's (his sire) progeny have generally been more successful sprinting or running middle distances, so there are concerns there.

Final Word- It's not often that the winner of the Wood is a throwout in the Derby, but this might be an exception. He just hasn't run fast enough to show he will be a major threat in this race, and I think the extra furlong only hurts him.

3) Anak Nakal

Pros- His best race came over this track back in November in the Kentucky Jockey Club, where he stalked the pace effectively before taking over midstretch and holding on gamely to win. Deep closer might get a white hot pace to run at, which would be to his advantage.

Cons- Has the lightest speed figures in the field, and those horses rarely run well in any race, let alone a race with 19 opponents. Never a good sign to be making an equipment change on Derby Day, as clearly blinkers were useless last time. Hasn't been competitive as a 3YO, and might be one of those horses that was precocious at 2 but never really advanced over the winter as a 3YO.

Final Word- If the pace is wicked, he could pass tired horses, but it's hard to imagine much more than that.

4) Court Vision

Pros- Another horse exiting the Wood, this horse was trying to get at the leaders but just couldn't seem to close ground in the final furlong to get the job done. The track was very speed favoring that day, so the fact that he was able to come from way off the pace to get close is a good sign. IEAH spent a lot of money to buy this horse, and Mott/Gomez are two of the best in the business.

Cons- Another horse who is rather light Beyer wise, and also making an equipment change, this time putting blinkers on for the first time. Has been very wide in a lot of his races, which is probably a result of his late running style more than racing luck, and will probably have to go even wider if he wants to make a serious run at the leaders coming home.

Final Word- Like Anak Nakal, the only way I can imagine this horse making a dent is if there is a pace meltdown up front. IEAH manages money about as well as Bear Stearn's mortgage desk (zing!), and I don't see this horse being a threat for a top 4 position.

5) Eight Belles

Pros- The only filly in the field, but this miss will not be intimidated by the boys, as she is a physical specimen who is bigger than many of her male counterparts. She enters this race on a four race winning streak, including two victories in graded stakes races where she sat off moderate fractions before finishing powerfully in the stretch in fast times. A 375k yearling purchase out of Unbridled's Song, she is one of the best bred horses in the race, and her sire should give her the stamina to compete at 10 furlongs. She's been somewhat ignored by the press, which is surprising, and might offer some value.

Cons- Despite what Rags to Riches did last year, it is always a major step up in class for a filly to compete in a race like this. She's never run over a mile and a sixteenth, and she hasn't even faced off against the best fillies of her generation yet. She has run almost exclusively in races where the fields were small and the pace was sensible, and neither of those will be the case on Saturday.

Final Word- Connections were on and off about running in this race or the Oaks, but I think they made the right choice. There is only one Derby, and she has a right to be competitive in this spot. I wish she ran in some bigger fields or more competitive races, but she is fast enough to compete and is one of the few horses that is bred to go the distance. Not sure that she wins but underneath is a real possibility.

6) Z Fortune

Pros- Coming into this race off of his best effort to date, this NY bred colt couldn't quite get past Gayego in the Arkansas Derby but certainly ran fast enough to make him a contender in the Derby. Settled in nicely in that race and closed on a track that is very speed favoring, and has trained very well since. Ran over a 90 Beyer as a 2YO and over 100 as a 3YO, an achievement most Derby winners have accomplished.

Cons- By Siphon, who is more known as a middle distance type sire, there could be some distance concerns. Another horse that has had several jockey changes in his short career, suggesting he might not have been any jockey's number one choice.

Final Word- I'm not generally a huge fan of New York Breds as legit Derby horses, but this stable knows what they are doing, and I expect big things from him Saturday.

7) Big Truck

Pros- Second New York Bred, this Hook and Ladder colt showed promise against state breds before moving up to open company and staying competitive. Ran well at Tampa Bay, including a win over 1-20 War Pass, giving that horse is first career defeat. Like Funny Cide, this colt is also trained by Barclay Tagg

Cons- While he has hung around against open company for the most part, he hasn't run fast enough to prove he really can compete with the best 3YO's in the country. His win over War Pass had probably more to do with the fact that War Pass never picked up his feet than anything else. If you throw out his two races at Tampa Bay, he looks like a horse that will not match up to most of these. His breeding also suggests he might be better in long sprints than at classic distances.

Final Word- While the connections have earned the right to take a shot in this race, it's hard to imagine him having much of an impact.

8) Visionaire-

Pros- Gotham winner literally came from the clouds to win that race, as heavy fog prevented anyone from seeing most of the race until deep stretch. His late running style could be useful if all of the speed outside goes hard in front of him. Another horse who wasn't at his best on the Polytrack, but at least he made a respectable run to finish 5th beaten 6 lengths. Trained by Michael Matz, same trainer as Barbaro.

Cons- Has only run one race that makes you think he could be a factor on Saturday, and that was against a suspect group who set extremely fast fractions in front of him on a sloppy track. While rain is in the forecast tonight, it looks most likely the track will be either good or fast, so that shouldn't work in his favor.

Final Word- His closing style might make him a threat to get up for a piece, but unless the track is sloppy or the pace is crazy, I don't see this horse in the top 4

9) Pyro

Pros- Most considered him the favorite for most of the winter, and rightfully so. This son of Pulpit ran very well as a 2YO, running 2nd to War Pass in the Champagne and Breeders Cup in swift times. His speed figures have been a little slower this year, but that may be mostly due to the slower early pace of the races he was in. He has shown the best acceleration of any horse in the stretch this year, and his final quarter mile times suggest he should have no problem going farther, as does his breeding

Cons- The one big negative is, of course, the Blue Grass, where Pyro did next to nothing running a nondescript 10th beaten by over 11 lengths. Even if he didn't take to the polytrack, a truly great horse probably puts up more of a fight in that spot, which clearly he did not. A case can also be made that his two stand out races might be suspect. The Beyer from the Champagne seems abnormally high for a horse running a mile in over 1:36, and the Breeder's Cup race was run over a sloppy track that was changing throughout the day.

Final Word- The determining factor with this horse is whether you think the Blue Grass is a throw out. Personally, I think it is, and I hope he gets overlooked to some extent on Saturday. Serious win candidate, and must use underneath for exotics.

10) Colonel John

Pros- The best of the west, Colonel John comes into this race off of two impressive victories in California, beating the likes of El Gato Malo and Bob Black Jack among others. By two time Breeders Cup Classic champ Tiznow, this horse is bred to run all day, and his late running style figures to be effective again today. His Beyers are on the light side, but that may have more to do with the way most polytrack races are run, where jockeys tend to restrain there horses more for a strong finish. Colonel John has shown just such an ability, as he has come home in under 12 seconds for the last furlong in each of his past two races. His bullet breeze in 57.4 seconds for 5 furlongs suggests he should have no problems on the dirt, either.

Cons- Not too much to knock on this consistent colt. His Beyers are a little light, and his competition out west was certainly questionable. The biggest knock on this horse is that he hasn't run on conventional dirt yet in a race, and there is no way to know exactly how good he is on such a surface until he runs on one.

Final Word- Most horses that run well on synthetic surfaces don't have a problem on the dirt, and Colonel John should be no exception. Another horse that is a strong win candidate and must use in exotics.

11) Z Humor

Pros- Ran well as a 2YO, including a nice third behind War Pass and Pyro in the Champagne, came right back to dead heat for the Delta Jackpot, clinching his spot for this race. By Distorted Humor, same sire as Funny Cide, out of an AP Indy mare, he should not have a problem with the extra furlong in the Derby. He also has improved in each of his three races this year.

Cons- Despite his improvement from the winter, he still hasn't done much as a 3YO, including a nondescript fourth in the Fountain of Youth and third behind longshot Recapturetheglory in the Illinois Derby. Another horse who is changing equipment on Derby Day, this time taking off blinkers that he has worn for his past 5 races. His Beyers are also light compared to other horses that have won the Derby.

Final Word- In most other years, this horse is probably a throwout, but if he were to continue to improve into this race he could make some noise against this puzzling group of horses. Still, I would only use him sparingly if at all underneath.

12) Smooth Air

Pros- Consistent son of Smooth Jazz ran well to be second behind Big Brown in the Florida Derby, punching his ticket to Kentucky in the process. He was successful stretching out in the Tampa Bay Derby after a couple of wins at 7 furlongs down in Miami, and has yet to finish out of the money in 7 starts in his career.

Cons- Smooth Jazz was a sprinter, so there are definitely concerns about his ability to get the distance from a breeding perspective. He also missed training a few days last weekend with a fever, and it's hard to make up those days with so few days before the Derby

Final Word- Another horse that usually would be a safe bet to toss out, but his consistency makes him a possibilty underneath. Still can't see him winning, though.

13) Bob Black Jack

Pros- Speed merchant ran the fastest Beyer of any 3YO this year, running a 109 in the Sunshine Millions Dash. Looks to be the speed of the speed in this race, and despite being somewhat outside he shouldn't have too much trouble getting towards the inside for the first turn. He's probably a better sprinter, but his two tries routing have been very respectable.

Cons- Appears to be a need the lead type, and even a lightly poor break would ruin his chances. He should be able to get the lead, but he might have to go 22 for a quarter and 45 for the half to get it, in which case it's hard to imagine him anywhere close to the leaders by the 1/8th pole. He has yet to run on conventional dirt, and is also making a switch to blinkers, which should have him very keen to go early.

Final Word- He'll give you a thrill as he should be out in front, and he might be worth a small saver bet in case the track really favors speed or the pace in unexpectedly moderate.

14) Monba

Pros- Pletcher horse comes out of the Blue Grass a victor despite being steadied early and forced wide into the lane. By Maria's Mon, sire of Derby winner Monarchos, out of an Easy Goer mare, he should have no problems whatsoever with the Derby distance. Despite running only 5 times, this horse has 3 wins, sporting a winning percentage not too many others in the field can match.

Cons- His three best races are arguably on synthetic surfaces, and his most recent try on the dirt was an out and out flop, running last beaten 40 lengths in the Fountain of Youth. He was going crazy in the paddock that day, which is not a good sign given the 100,000+ people expected to be on hand Saturday. Another horse that has run very light Beyers compared to those who have won this race in the past.

Final Word- You always have to respect every horse Pletcher leads out to the track, but this one seems like a polytrack specialist. If you must bet him, make sure you see him in the paddock first and that he is not uncomfortable or sweating.

15) Adriano

Pros- Exceptionally well bred horse (By AP Indy out of a Mr. Prospector mare) punched his ticket to the Derby via his win in the Lanes End stakes in March at Turfway Park. He is training great coming into the race, and perennial leading jockey Edgar Prado (rider of Barbaro) was so impressed with his works he decided to stay on board for the Derby. Graham Motion is another trainer that always must be respected in any race where he has a horse running.

Cons- Like Monba, he looks like a polytrack/turf horse. His one dirt race was a poor effort, running 9th beaten almost 20 lengths in the Fountain of Youth. After winning the Lanes End, his connections said they would not point to the Derby, but after working out well over the Churchill Downs strip they could not turn the chance to run for the roses. Yet another horse who is light on the Beyer side.

Final Word- I can't blame the owners for taking a shot in this race, but his one race on the dirt isn't nearly enough to inspire confidence this horse will be prominently involved in the finish.

16) Denis Of Cork

Pros- Was 3 for 3 going into Illinois Derby, including an impressive win in the Southwest Stakes, where he rallied stoutly from well off of the pace on a track that generally favors speed to win going away, earning a solid 96 Beyer. This is Harlan's Holiday's first crop of Derby age, and so far he has been a hit as a sire. A mare by Unbridled underneath should give him some extra stamina, and Calvin Borel, jockey of Derby winner Street Sense last year, sees fit to ride. The last horse to make the field, he has been training very well and seems to be at home at Churchill Downs.

Cons- As nice as his first three races were, his last race was certainly perplexing. Running in a 7 horse field that didn't appear too tough on paper, he was never a factor and finished 5th beaten almost double digits. He also concedes experience to most of his foes, having raced only 4 times thus far, and even champions such as Curlin have had a hard time overcoming a lack of experience. While there is little question Harlan's Holiday is a nice sire, he was most effective as a runner at 8-9 furlongs so there could be some distance limitations potentially.

Final Word- This is a nice colt who deserved a shot in this race. Another horse I don't see winning but certainly could see underneath.

17) Cowboy Cal

Pros- Second Pletcher horse is, surprise, also exceptionally well bred, this time by Giant's Causeway out of a Seeking the Gold mare. He ran a very game second in his last on the polytrack, and in fact has been first or second in each of his races since his debut at the spa last summer. John Velazquez, who rides first call for Pletcher, retains the mount, which alone makes him a threat.

Cons- Another horse that has run only on turf or synthetic surfaces, except for his first race where he was a well beaten 7th in his debut. He looks like a horse that will be close to the pace, which could be a problem from an outside post with speed both to his inside and outside. His Beyers are also a little on the light side.

Final Word- His one race on dirt was a dud, but many horses don't fire first time out, so I think that race is a toss out. What's left is a very consistent horse who can win on the lead or by stalking the pace, which makes him very dangerous at a square price.

18) Recapturetheglory

Pros- Cherokee Run colt was very impressive making every pole a winner in the Illinois Derby. He just ran 12 second furlongs all the way around the track, which would be an ideal way to run on Saturday if possible. This horse seems to get better and better with each race, and you can never count those types of horses out entirely.

Cons- His best race was against a suspect field of 7, and he was able to set moderate fractions without being challenged at all. There is no way he is going to be able to go 24 and 48 in the Derby and be anywhere close to the lead, so the choice is either go faster and hope he doesn't get cooked early, or rate behind the leaders and hope he doesn't mind dirt in his face. The longest shot on the board in his last race, he was not considered a Derby contender until that win.

Final Word- If he had drawn more to the inside, I would have considered him having a chance to work out a good trip, but being this far outside with fast horses all around him will only hurt his chances. Hard to recommend.

19) Gayego

Pros- Was extremely game winning the Arkansas Derby, stalking a fast pace but still having enough left in the tank to win in impressive time. Was running fast on the synthetics out west before shipping in to Arkansas and posting a 103 Beyer in his first dirt start, which compares nicely to other Derby winners in their final prep. He's never been worse than second in 5 starts, and looks poised to run a big one on Saturday as well

Cons- The post position is a killer, as he is probably going to have to go early with Recapturetheglory to his left and Big Brown to his right. Mike Smith will have to work out a much better trip than he gave Flashy Bull from out here in 2006, where he was perhaps as wide as any horse that has ever run in this race's storied history. His Sire, Gilded Time, is also known more as a sire of sprinters.

Final Word- Had he drawn to the inside, this horse very well might have been my pick to win it all, but even with the tough post I think he can be really tough, and will be using him on top and underneath in exotics.

20) Big Brown

Pros- 3 starts, 3 wins by a combined 29 lengths... what more can you say? He is a standout on paper, and has trained great in Churchill this week. He will almost certainly be the favorite come post time, and looks to be the one horse who could be a legit Triple Crown threat if he were to win Saturday. Kent Desormeaux, who has ridden as well or better than anyone in the country over the past year, insisted after his off the turf allowance win that he will go anywhere to ride this horse, which speaks volume about this horse's talent.

Cons- Despite his impressive wins thus far, there are causes for concern. It's always hard to win a race like this off of only 3 races, including only two since the summer. He didn't miss these races because he was vacationing, either; he missed them because of chronic foot problems, which could rear their ugly head come Saturday where the track is usually souped up to be extra hard so the final times are faster. His last breeze was done in front bandages, another red flag, and he will be wearing those same bandages Saturday. If Mike Smith decides to give Gayego a tour of the grounds as he did with Flashy Bull two years ago, this horse will most likely be to the outside of that, which would almost certainly eliminate his chances of winning.

Final Word- This horse clearly has a ton of potential, but there will be at least a dozen horses on the undercard races that day that will have much better chances of winning their race at better odds. The Derby is not the race to try to score on a 5/2 horse, and this one is no different, as there are too many question marks to justify such odds. My gut tells me this horse will pull a Point Given/Afleet Alex, get beat in the Derby before proving his talents in the Preakness and/or Belmont.

Douchebags Everywhere Lament: Patriots Lose Super Bowl

2008-02-04T14:27:00.000-05:00

I don't know if I have ever been more satisfied with the outcome of the Super Bowl. Some initial thoughts:

- The Patriots will now be compared to the '84 49ers and the '85 Bears, both of whom also went 18-1. The only difference: both of those teams won the Super Bowl.

- Maybe, instead of scoffing and giving smug press conferences like this, the Pats should wait until after the game. Because shit like that can come back to haunt you. Plaxico said that the Patriots would score17 points, and he apparently gave them too much credit. The Pats actually scored 14, 7 of which came after a pass interference call put the ball on the 1-yard-line, and 7 of which came with less than 3 minutes to go in the game.

- Bill Belichick apparently thinks that if he isn't there to witness the end of a game, then it didn't happen, or something. Bill, learn how to lose with class you dick.

- Good to know that the Patriots O-linemen will have plenty of time to tend to their beards now. Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora, and Michael Strahan undressed those guys last night. The Giants rarely rushed more than four defenders, and they were in Brady's face all night.

- Bill Simmons can't be liking this. And that makes all of us happy.

- ESPN can now dispense with the stupid "how would this current team do agaist these all-time great teams" pieces. Forever. Please. First of all, they began comparing the Pats to all-time great teams before the playoffs had even started. Second, the last time they wasted all of our time with one of those series, it was for the 2005 USC Trojans football team, and we all remember how that turned out.

- Its so great that Junior Seau and his stupid hats will have to wait at least another year to gravy-train a championship ring. Or who knows, maybe he will graduate.

- The only negative is that now we have to hear from the F-ing '72 Dolphins. The Giants hadn't even finished spraying each other with champagne and Mercury Morris was already giving a self-congratulatory interview on ESPN. I know, he was available? Who knew?

Thanks to The Big Lead for the pics.

James Laurinaitis Coming Back to School

2008-01-15T09:41:00.000-05:00

Not exactly sure why, but who cares. He's coming back.

If you were to tell a Buckeye fan that among OSU's three All-American junior defenders (Vernon Gholston, Malcolm Jenkins, and Laurinaitis) and two standout offensive juniors (Alex Boone and Brian Robiske) that they would only lose Gholston, he would have to be pretty pleased.

Things are looking up...

Pitchers and Catchers Report in Just About a Month!

2008-01-08T14:27:00.000-05:00

Well that was nothing short of terrible. Here are my initial thoughts:

- I refuse to become like an obnoxious Yankee fan, and get pissed when my team loses in The Championship Game because they are pretty tough just to get to. But I still have a right to be unhappy.

- I came away from last night's game with the same thought that I had after watching LSU in person against Florida: LSU is beatable. They are very beatable. But a team that seems beatable but is rarely beaten is a team that knows how to win. And LSU (obviously) knows how to win.

- There were any number of points in time where the game was there for the taking, and at every point, OSU did something stupid to piss it away.

- Todd Boeckman has GOT to be better next year. Whether it was his questionable decision making, or his bad throws, or his holding onto the ball too long in the pocket, he was one of the major reasons the Buckeyes lost the game.

- Jim Tressell has completely lost all of the equity he gained in 2002. No, his job is not on the line or anything like that--let's not go completely off the deep end here people-- but he has been thoroughly outcoached in two straight BCS Title games. The Ohio State defense looked totally confused for the middle third of the game, and the coaches couldn't keep the teams intensity up after taking the 10-0 lead. Don't even get me started on the time outs before every crucial play, or that Chinese fire-drill on 4th down! There is nothing worse than watching your team come out of a time out, then see your QB run for his life and fumble the ball 30 yards backwards on 4th and 7.

- The Bucks had all of the earmarks of a poorly coached team: Horribly-timed penalties (including far too many personal fouls), turnovers, mistakes in special teams (blocked FG?!), having the defense not set at the snap, and a QB totally unable to read defenses.

- It will go completely unnoticed (except by LSU defenders) but Chris Wells is an utter beast. He looked like a man playing with boys for a lot of that game.

Fuck Jim Sorgi

2007-12-31T11:32:00.000-05:00

And fuck the rest of the hapless Colts backups.

Thats all.

Lets Get This Clear Right Now...

2007-12-23T20:37:00.000-05:00

...Before all of the week 17, sports-radio rabble-rousing starts in earnest:

Tony Dungy does not owe the Browns a damn thing.

Being back in the Cleveland area for the holidays has allowed me access to the myopic Cleveland area talk-radio, and with the Browns needing a Tennessee loss against the Colts (who have nothing to play for) to get into the playoffs, the usual final-week nonsense has begun already. A quick early sample:

"Tony Dungy BETTER play all his starters!"

"Can the league step in and make the Colts play their starters?"

"Dungy owes it to the integrity of the season to play Peyton Manning."

Make no mistake, the Colts do no owe the Browns anything. Even though I am an unapologetic Browns fan, I do not expect Tony Dungy to do any favors for the Browns. Dungy is in charge of the Colts, and he gets paid to put them in the best position to win the Super Bowl. If that means playing his starters, thats what he should do. If that means sitting his starters, thats what he should do. The Browns had their opportunity to play themselves into the playoffs, and they shit the bed.

Now, because Derek Anderson apparently thought that Chinedum Ndukwe was a Browns receiver, they are at the mercy of how the Tennessee-Indy game turns out.

This CANNOT be true...

2007-12-18T14:15:00.001-05:00

Can it?

No... Can't be....

Its fun though... via the FanHouse.

The Good, The Bad, The Ugly: NFL Primer Week 15

2007-12-14T10:03:00.000-05:00

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly is a weekly NFL primer. Nothing is sacred, not the players, not the coaches, and certainly not the betting lines.

The Good: Jaguars at Steelers
I would understand if you don't agree with me that this is a good game this week, in which case you hate football and all that is American. This will be a throwback game to when football was all bout standing toe-to-toe with your opponent and just being stronger than them. Both teams use the exact same gameplan for their success: run the ball, and play great defense. With all the advances in offense and defense, you can go back 50 years, and down in the basic plans of winning games, hall of fame coaches always taught: run the ball, and stop the run - still works today.

The Steelers are coming off ~~a guaranteed victory in which they delivered a suffocating blow to the previously unbeaten team~~ an embarrassing and hopefully humbling loss, and as a Browns fan it was both sad and exciting. For one, it brings us one step closer to losing the division by a mere one game, but on the other hand, I really hoped someone would critically injure Tom Brady so that they lose a game. However which way they want to look at last week's game, the Steelers no doubt will not be yapping their traps anytime soon, because they saw just how far they are from the top. In the last couple of weeks, their offense has struggled to run the ball with the dominating power that was the calling card of the Bill Cower era Steelers. Equally disappointing (for them at least) has been their erratic offensive line play, which has also been the rock of this team for the last decade.

The Jaguars have lost their best defensive player, and a central part of their stopping-the-run gameplan in Marcus Stroud. How this will affect them against a team that has struggled to execute in that area is yet to be seen, but surely it will be an emotional hit. On the other side however, their quarterback (Gerrard) is playing nearly flawless football, and their two-headed running back rotation is producing devastatingly tangible results devoid of injury. So if you like beat-your-face in football, this game is for you. If you think this is boring, go put on a skirt and prance in the lollipop fields of Chocolate la

The Bad: Jets at Patriots
This one, boys and girls, is going to get ugly. Last I saw the line was 24ish, so take take take. Remember Patriotgate? Remember the lack of affinity the head coaches have for eachother? Remember the extremely embarrassing gap in on-field talent? Yeah, you remember all those things if you think the Jets are going to come out with a win, or even be within 25 some points of the Patriots in Foxboro. Need more reasons? How about the fact that NYJ were blown out at home by some 30 points when they last played this Patriots team.

Nothing is standing in the way of history, and of the Fuck You Tour by this Patriots team. Last week they flexed their muscle by soundly beating a team that they might be susceptible to losing to. They came up against the number one ranked defense in the league, punched them in the face, then laughed as their opponent lay on the ground crying and bleeding. They can do whatever they want on defense, and the Jets have neither the players, the scheme, or preparation to stop them or even slow them down. If there ever was a no-chance-in-hell game in the NFL, this has to be it.

The Jets on the other hand are going to come into this game for about a series or two of real effort. Once they realize how much they suck, and how much better the Patriots are in cold, snowy conditions they're going to shut it down. Why the hell would they want to be injured in some meaningless game for both teams late in the season? The Jets aren't going anywhere except the top of the draft board, ironically where they will see their nemesis. This will be payback by Bill and his players. Payback to Mangini for leaving, payback to Mangini for cheating, and payback for having no honor among thieves.

The Ugly: Bobby Petrino
I don't like Bobby Petrino, and I tried to make this abundantly clear. But for anyone who missed it, I don't like this greasy coaching robot, and he should go back to selling cars. I just summarized that entire post for you. I thought this situation was over when Arthur Blank came on the air, and in uncertain terms wanted to forget this era of betrayal, and I respect that kind of view. In fact, I feel so bad for Arty that he's come out of this looking like a sad old chap who's been beaten in the nuts too many times. And this year he has.

However, I can't let this Bobby Petrino thing go without addressing at least part of what I heard later that day. When I was driving home from work and listening to local sports radio, one of the announcers was protecting Petrino. This man should be taken off the radio immediately. To be fair, he wasn't defending Petrino's entire life, which has been marked by the stench of door-to-door salesmen etiquette, but more just this specific act. He was saying that he did the Falcons a favor by leaving, because he certainly didn't want to be there either professionally or personally. This point I can somewhat understand. But it's completely ignorant to focus on just the last day of his Falcons tenure to defend this man. If he had done it once, it's something that goes by the wayside, but this is the way he's conducted himself throughout his coaching career at Louisville, Atlanta, and without a doubt in Arkansas. I sincerely hoping this radio personality was just playing the devil's advocate for ratings' sake.

Here's what Petrino did: he quit on his team after lying to their faces. He didn't go through even one (be it difficult) season in Atlanta after preaching to his players to finish each game, finish the season, and never give up. His heart lies with Arkansas? Really? Did his heart lie with the Oakland Raiders or Auburn, or Atlanta (ha!) while he was at Louisville? I'm sorry, I don't have a shred of pity for this man. We all have jobs that we don't enjoy, we all have bad days, bad weeks and tough projects. But guess what? We're not getting paid nearly five million a year for doing these shitty jobs, we get paid enough to make our lives go. For five million I'd suck it up and take any kind of punishment Petrino takes on a daily basis. I would live through the criticism. It's a disgrace and insult to the general public that a person gets any kind pity. A guy that left a robotic letter of his absence in the players' lockers after dictating said letter over the telephone should be the media punching bag for years to come. Milloy had it right when he crossed out Petrino's name and in its place wrote "COWARD." Why would you want this slime to have anything to do with your program?

Petrino Bails. The hell you say! [We Suck at Sports]

TOSS UP! - Who is the Bigger Douchebag Coach?

2007-12-13T15:50:00.000-05:00

TOSS UP! is a feature idea that we here at TSoF blatantly stole from "Pardon the Interruption." TOSS UP! takes two of our esteemed bloggers, and puts them up against each other in a spirited debate!

Two sides of an issue!

Scintillating arguments!

Little, if any, discernable resolution!

Here's the question: In light of the recent actions of each, who is the bigger douchebag coach? Bobby Petrino or Nick Saban?

First up, FightingIrishman!

Go!

This one is easy for me--it's Bobby Petrino. Nick Saban may have strung the media and the city of Miami along, he may have lied, but his reasons were understandable if not to be condoned. He wanted to be fair to the Dolphins organization and finish out the season before handing over the reigns. However, the media frenzy surrounding Miami was a distraction, not Saban. He tried to re-direct questions because he wanted to put the focus back on the game. When the media incessantly demanded answers he finally cracked and gave them the only one that would quell the onslaught of rumors and speculation. Yes, he lied. He's human. I'm sure the people of Miami will never forgive him, but his transgressions pale in comparison to Petrino's douchebaggery(look for that in Websters next year)!

Bobby Petrino (by the way, is it just me or is it weird for a middle aged man to still refer to himself as Bobby) is the bigger douche for 3 reasons:

1. He walked out on his team IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SEASON. He walked out on a franchise decimated over the Vick scandal and a city looking to him to pick up the pieces of a shattered team and lead them out of the cellar.

2. He lied too. Tony Kornheiser revealed on PTI that when he pressed Petrino before Monday night's game versus the Saints, Petrino replied definitively that he was remaining the Falcons head coach.

3. MOST IMPORTANTLY, He's a coward and he showed no respect for his players. Petrino informed Falcons owner Athur Blank of his intentions to take the Arkansas job via voicemail, and that he wrote his players A FORM LETTER explaining his decision before hightailing it out of Atlanta to attend his "coronation" in Fayettville. That is classless. It's like Robert Irsay hiring Mayflower trucks to move the Colts out of Baltimore in the middle of the night. People in Baltimore to this day boycott Mayflower movers!

Here's just a glimpse as to what the players thought of Bobby Petrino:

--Joey Harrington said, "That's what I think brought up the anger, to have him talk about family, about team and about commitment, and then to come in here and have a form letter at your locker. That's not how a man acts. That's how a coward acts."

--Running Back and team leader Warrick Dunn said, "It got to the point where guys really didn't care if he left or not. But the way he decided to leave, to me, was just not right."
both quotes courtesy of ESPN.com news services

BOB Petrino acted like a coward. He was the captain that took the only life boat on a sinking ship and left his crew to drown....and that my friends is the peak of douchebaggery!

Well said good sir! Now, WCT!

Go!

Both men lied. Both left their teams high and dry. We have established that both are capable of being disingenuous pricks. But Nick Saban took his douche-ness to a higher level. Saban was the one who stood in front of the media late in the '06 NFL season, and indignantly said, "I don't know why I have to keep going over this over, and over, and over again" when asked about the Alabama job.

But why should we be surprised? Saban was the one who specifically told LSU recruits that he would be the Tigers' coach for at least the next four years, before abruptly leaving to go to the Doplhins.

Saban was the one who specifically told Michigan State recruits that he would be the Spartans' coach for at least the next four years, before abruptly leaving to go to LSU.

Saban's douchebaggery is not even restricted to lying about leaving jobs. This season, after his Crimson Tide lost to Mississippi State and Louisiana-Monroe in consecutive games, he compared those losses to the attacks of 9/11 and the Pearl Harbor attack.

Last year in training camp he berated a rookie for being too fat, and actually made the man cry! (Actually, I take that back, that was kind of funny.)

And lest we forget, his last two seasons have consisted of a terrible year with the Dolphins, and a disappointing year in Tuscaloosa (including a loss to one of his former employers, LSU, and sixth straight loss to Auburn) so recently he has been a dick and a bad coach!

He is a consistent liar, his coaching abilities seem to be eroding since he won the BCS title four years ago, and, worst of all, he is really really indignant about it. That is why, in this blogger's opinion, he the lowest of the low. He is Saban, King of all Douchebags!

Are You Like Me?

2007-12-07T14:39:00.000-05:00

Have you ever thought that a college football season is a lot like Jessica Simpson?

Have no idea what I'm talking about? Check this out and all your questions will be answered.

The Good, The Bad, The Ugly: NFL Primer Week 14

2007-12-07T10:47:00.000-05:00

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly is a weekly NFL primer. Nothing is sacred, not the players, not the coaches, and certainly not the betting lines.

I'll have to be honest with you, I'm not a huge fan of these Thursday night games, it seems a little too College Football for me. Not that I don't love college football, it is in fact my favorite. However, as the season progresses these matchups are less Virgina Tech-Boston College, and more Nevada-New Mexico State. Be gone with you. Sunday and Monday are NFL days, let's leave them that way, they're spreading the content too thin. Maybe not, since no one has the NFL Network.

The Good: Steelers at Patriots
Why is this good? I really don't know, because the Patriots now are the epitome of all that is wrong in football. They have the most evil coach, and they have the most surgically precise and merciless offense, and the Devil Incarnate Tom Brady. Seriously, it seems like everything he touches turns to gold. He doesn't get rattled and he always makes the play when he needs to make it. It's frustrating. I'd love to tell you that the Steelers are going to win this game, but I'll leave it to Anthony Smith to speak for me. It's a good thing that with Joey Porter leaving someone has taken over the role of mouth-no-brains without any slippage in production.

I really would like Pittsburgh to win this game so that Evil Incarnate doesn't have every single awesome record in the books. Realistically I don't know how much bulletin board material does for the other team, especially when they don't even know who said it. I don't expect either team to come out playing better just because some no name schmuck likely to be cleaning jocks with his tongue decided to shoot his mouth. The truth is, the things that Pittsburgh does on defense are the things New England has struggled with the last couple of weeks. They have given up sacks while Pittsburgh does a great job pressuring the quarterback. The defense has struggled with a power running game, and that's really the basis of the Pittsburgh offense. And when the play breaks down, Roethlisberger is a good enough athlete to either throw the ball 80 yards down the field on the run, or escape and get some yards outside the pocket; all things New England has not seen with the shit competition they played.

So, is it possible that Pittsburgh wins? On paper it makes sense that they would because their strengths are accentuated by the fact that they are also New England's weaknesses. Will they? No, and you can mark that one down.

The Bad: Cardinals at Seahawks
How do I move from a really good matchup, to an indictment on how bad the NFC has been this year? Well, I guess that's just as good as any. The Seahawks and the Cardinals are in the same division, and are fighting for the right to make the playoffs. The fact that a team as awful looking as the Seahawks is at 8-4 on the season is absolutely remarkable. I saw them blow a double-digit lead against Cleveland and nearly lose to the Jay here-have-a-crucial-interception Feely. On the other side, we have a team with half of the starters missing sitting there at 6-6 with a better than average shot of either winning their division or making the playoffs. That kind of thing should be outlawed.

Cardinals have already beaten the Seahawks once, and god willing they'll do it again, putting a big nail in the coffin that is Shaun Alexander. Let me tell you, while everyone was riding his jock during his only good season, I used him then lost his number. The guy is soft, and that's not an opinion, it's a fact. He and Cedric Benson need to go to dinner and moisturize each others soft girly hands, because they are both women in NFL pads. Anyways, a team that is 6-6 should not be charging into the playoffs in any year, except this is some kind of bizarro year. The Cardinals don't have a safety, are down their best wide receivers (Boldin and Fitzgerald) and are at wits end with their ~~grocery bagger~~ quarterback Kurt Warner. I know people are saying that he's playing better, but come on people, have you watched him? Don't tell me how awesome he is when he's chucking the ball around against the worst secondary in the league in Cleveland. If they're so happy with him, cut playboy Matt Lienart.

This is nonsense, a team 6-6 should not be in any kind of talk about leading into the playoffs.

The Ugly: Bears at Redskins
For one, this is ugly because this game garnered superlatives like, "Well, the loser is definitely not going to make the playoffs." That's so pathetic, that two teams at 5-7, that I already wrote about it. If you've skipped to the third part, I don't know what to tell you, you're a backwards reader. But really, this didn't get ugly until both quarterback were knocked out of the game. The joke here is, both of these teams are no worse at quarterback at the end of the game, than they were at the beginning of the game.

Rex Grossman was knocked out of the game Carson Palmer style when a defensive linemen hit him low. But, I have to say, there's a good chance that no one in Chicago shed a tear for Rex's career as a Chicago quarterback, and certainly not as many as the Bengals fan(s) shed for Carson Palmer. When we look at Sexy Rexy, we're probably all in agreement that his stint as Da Bears' starting quarterback, backup, or otherwise is probably over, and it will be marked with a dark spot. He took the Bears to a Superbowl, their first since Ditka, but that's not entirely true. What's more true is that he lost a season for the Bears where they should have clearly won the championship. His inconsistent and often downright bad play is what directly cost them the Lombardi Trophy.

I do feel for Jason Campbell though, he doesn't deserve such a fate. I'm not talking about the dislocated knee cap, although that sounds like all sort of painful. I'm talking about the years he spent under Joe Gibbs, which will be remembered as regression in his career instead of progression. I hope he gets better and comes back next year, because in the few times that I saw him not getting sacked or kneed in the face, the guy could ball.

My EC Blogpoll Ballot - Week 15

2007-12-05T21:57:00.000-05:00

The last one of the season. I am shedding a single tear as I write this. We run a blogpoll over at Epic Carnival that appears on the blog every week. Before you check out the rankings of all of the carnies, check out the ballot that I filled in with my comments:

1- LSU - Personal feelings aside, I think this is the best team in the nation
2- Ohio State - Don't blame them. The BCS always rewards those who play easy schedules.
3- Oklahoma - Coach Bob Stoops has said in the past that he is not in favor of a playoff. Care to rethink that stance Bobby?
4- Missouri - They only lost to one team (granted, they lost to that team twice) and they fall all the way to the goddam Cotton Bowl
5- Virginia Tech - That 48-7 drubbing in Baton Rouge came back to haunt them
6- Georgia - They shouldn't have gotten crushed by Tennessee. They have no one to blame but themselves
7- Kansas - How the hell did they end up in the BCS?
8- USC - Also has no one to blame but themselves. Don't lose at home to Stanford next time.
9- Florida - Overrated, and very lucky to draw a coach-less Michigan team in the bowl
10- West Virginia - WTF???
11- Illinois - The biggest beneficiaries of OSU ending up in the title game
12- Boston College - If this team had a decent fan following (or even a just-below-average fan following) they would be in a much better bowl
13- Clemson - I can't believe there were two teams fighting for Tommy Bowden's services
14- Texas - WHATEVER!
15- Tennessee - That was about what I expected.
16- Auburn - Tommy Tuberville is staying? Who knew?
17- Wisconsin - Eh
18- Arizona State - This is about where they belong
19- Cincinnati - Coach Brian Kelly will be a hot name for coaching vacancies
20- Hawaii - I never, EVER thought they would find their way onto my ballot, let alone the top 20
21- Virginia - Is there a bowl that, year in and year out, consistenly gives you a more boring match up than the Gator Bowl? UVA-Uconn is utterly unwatchable

* * * * *
Dropped from the Rankings -
Oregon - Sad, sad ending to the season. This was the #1 team in the nation with Dennis Dixon, a Stanford-esque train-wreck without him. That is a true testament to his value.

Suck It Haters

2007-12-02T14:01:00.000-05:00

For some reason, and I have no idea why or when this started, Ohio State became the target of a lot of hate this year. Maybe it was because Notre Dame wasn't very good this year, so all of the jealous haters had to direct their venom elsewhere. Anyway, as a result posts like this and this were everywhere. Even my colleagues over at EC joined in the hate-fest with this and this.

Well, they're going to be in the championship game. So deal with it.

Do we need a playoff? Of course. Are the Buckeyes going to win the game? Maybe, but they will likely be the underdog no matter who they play. Do they deserve to be in the game? Absolutely. Abso-fucking-lutely. They lost one game by one touchdown to a top-15 ranked team. They played a non-conference schedule that was just as good as USC's. USC only beat two teams with winning records. OSU is as deserving as anyone else. Was the Big Ten weak this year? Perhaps, but not to the extent that a lot of people would lead you to believe. It does have 10 of 11 teams bowl-eligible. I don't think the Big Ten was significantly worse than the Big 12 or the Big East, and a few days ago we were all ready to put those conference's champions into the title game.

So the Buckeyes are going to be there. You haters might as well get used to it.

The Good, The Bad, The Ugly: NFL Primer Week 13

2007-11-29T09:50:00.000-05:00

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly is a weekly NFL primer. Nothing is sacred, not the players, not the coaches, and certainly not the betting lines.

Took a little bit of a break for Thanksgiving, you know how it goes. Ate some turkey, and apparently some crow. This much I've noticed: every time I put a team in the "The Good," they come out completely flat that week, and the weeks after. Case in point, the Pittsburgh Steelers. After I called them a model franchise, they go out and lose to the Jets! Worst loss of the season? Possibly. You may also recall, I called the NYG good. What a hex, they looked horrible against Miami in London, and continued their woesome ways through Eli, getting owned by the worst secondary in the league. From now on, I shall try to hex teams that I do not like on purpose. With great power, comes great responsibility.

The Good: Easy - Green Bay at Dallas.
Sorry, now I ruined the game for everyone. Good thing they'll never know because they can't see the game; it's on the NFL network.

This is the first matchup of 10-1 teams since 1990, I learned that from ESPN! But really, I'm excited not be able to watch this game. Maybe we'll get a few questions answered about both teams. Green Bay only lost one game this year, and in a calendar year (Thanksgiving to Thanksgiving) they've got a ridiculous 14-1, that's better than the Patriots people! I've watched this Packers team, and they sure as hell don't seem like a collection of individuals that is a football juggernaut. I think we've all agreed that Dallas is a pretty good team by now, so with that said this is a great litmus test for the Packers and the rest of the country. Exactly how good is this Green Bay team? For the entire year they plain-as-day could not run the ball, but in the last 5 games, they're averaging over 100 yards rushing. They seem to throw the ball a million times a game, yet Favre has thrown less interceptions than he has in his entire career (22TD - 8INT), but there's still 5 games to go (his low, by the way is 13). I can't name a single player on their defense that I would put in Pro Bowl, and yet they're in the top half in almost every single defensive category. So, is there really something behind this GB team, or are they doing it with smoke and mirrors?

On the other hand, Dallas does look to be a realistic juggernaut. And even though they have been the most hated team in the '90s (and loved at the same time) because of their success, they are the lone hope to cease the Patriots' Sherman's March to The Sea campaign through the NFL. Tony Romo is playing lights out on and off the field. He's throwing touchdowns to TO in the stadium and he's throwing touchdowns to the likes of Sophia Bush, Carrie Underwood, and Jessica Simpsons in the bedroom. Really, everything is coming up aces in Dallas. Their offense looks to be nearly unstoppable, TO looks coachable, the defense is playing lights out, and they're dominating their opponents.

And because of all that, I talked myself into this being a horrible mismatch on the field. Dallas looks to be too good at every position, so I'll take them to win big, 17 points big. This is of course a weak attempt to confuse the Gods of Irony to bring us a highly competitive game.

The Bad: Arizona Cardinals Losses.
As a Browns fan, I know how you feel, the two of you that are indeed Arizona Cardinals fans. We've had "The Drive" and "The Fumble" and if you throw in the Cavs there's also "The Shot." So, I know where you're coming from when you find a way to lose. Nine of their 11 games have them either winning (5) or losing (4) within one score. This has to eventually take a toll on your health; I know I lost at least two years off my life watching some Cardiac teams.

Last week, the Cardinals were able to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory. Leading by four points with about three minutes to go is a time where you should be able to hold a lead. Not only that, but they lost it on a 40+ yard scramble by Frank Gore. Gore is no scrub, he's a good back, but there's no reason he should run undaunted into the endzone. It doesn't end there, after that even, they had a last chance to win, down by three with some 7 seconds to go on the San Francisco 1 yard line - a fade doesn't work. But they don't know a fade to their first, second or even third receiver. It was to their fourth.

Overtime, salvation. With an easily makeable field goal, pretty boy Niel Rackers misses a chance to win in OT by clearly hooking it as soon as it was off his foot, what a choke job. But huzzah, the defense holds and 49ers have to punt only to have brilliantly educated, and always high-looking Steve Breaston not fair catch the ball within the 10 and not do anything with it. After a penalty, they are at their own 1. Of course, common sense states that in this situation, run the ball to get some breathing room, or have a quick slant so that you're not standing in your own endzone. But no, seven step drop for Kurt Warner, admiring the scenery of his primary receivers being covered causes him to get sacked and fumble the ball in the endzone. Ball game, you may all go cry now. Three chances to win, all wasted, and not for the first time this season. It was so painful to watch I cried, and I'm not even a fan, just for empathy's sake.

The Ugly: Eli Manning's performance.
I marveled at the Giants earlier this season when they reeled of 6 wins in a row. Their defensive line was playing amazing football and Eli Manning was managing the game well. He didn't force it, he made key throws, and didn't put the team in a precarious situation.

This cannot be said of his game against Minnesota. Eli Manning completed 21 of his passes in that game for the low low price of 43% completion, and that's rounding up people. And you know all that stuff about precarious positions? Well, he didn't do much of that either, since a good majority of his four interceptions went directly for touchdowns without the defense awkwardly trotting on the field at all. That's really forward thinking for your teammates.

But Christ, four interceptions including back-to-back picks into the waiting hands of defenders. I get it, players have bad games, sometimes the opposition just has your number and all. Minnesota? Not so much. They have one of the worst rated secondaries (last in passing yards allowed) in all the league, and yet they could cover the receivers and pick of passes without nearly breaking a sweat. What is wrong with this picture? That was an ugly, disgusting game by Eli that even had Tom Coughlin searching for superlatives (ha!) that don't include swear words. He of all, was speechless.

Mind you, this is not Eli's first go around with atrocious performances. He's been less than stellar to say the least this entire season. He's got nearly as man INT as TD (16-15), and a completion percentage of under 60%, if we round up. And like clock work, the Giants are crumbling in the second half of the season.

Tony Romo: Too many women, too little time [The Big Lead]

My EC Blogpoll Ballot - Week 14

2007-11-27T23:01:00.000-05:00

Only a couple of these ballots left in the season, and if you have been following this feature each week, I think you will be surprised by this entry. We run a blogpoll over at Epic Carnival that appears on the blog every week. Before you check out the rankings of all of the carnies, check out the ballot that I filled in with my comments:

1. West Virginia - UConn is still trying to figure out what hit them on Saturday.

2. Missouri - They are the UNDERDOG in the Big 12 title game. Weird.

3. Ohio State - I wouldn't like their chances against WVU or Mizzou. They should just be happy to go to Pasadena.

4. Kansas - As weird as this year has been, they could STILL make it into the title game.

5. Georgia - If they hadn't lost to Tennessee, or if Tennessee hadn't beaten Kentucky in OT, they would have an outside shot at the title game

6. LSU - Last week I asked how they would play with the Les Miles distractions. Well, I got my answer - "poorly."

7. Virginia Tech - Maybe, just maybe, the best of the two loss teams

8. USC - Also playing well right now. Another team that would benefit if there were a playoff.

9. Boston College - I think they lose the re-match with VT on Saturday

10. Florida - Ok, maybe the most overrated team on most ballots. Tebow should win the Heisman, but don't be impressed by a home win over Florida State. The best team UF has beaten this year is Tennessee for crying out loud.

11. USC - Its going to be weird to see them in some random December bowl game.

12. Oklahoma - They could still help a lot of teams out by winning the Big 12 Championship Game

13. Illinois - Can't wait to see Zook vs. Florida

14. Clemson - They saved Tommy Bowden's job with a last-second win again.

15. Texas - I told you I saw a three-loss season for them. But even I expected them to beat lame-duck Francione

16. Tennessee - Proof that the SEC isn't as tough as its homers would like you to believe: This team could win the conference.

17. Auburn - Tommy Tuberville has got to leave, right? My guess is he'll end up coaching LSU.

18. Wisconsin

19. Cincinnati - That close loss vs. WVU looks pretty good now

20. Oregon - Is there anyone in the Leaf family with any talent?

21. Hawaii - Yes readers, Hawaii. Do not adjust your monitors, Hawaii is on my ballot. It must be freezing in Hell right now.

* * * * *
Others Receiving Consideration - Well, nobody really. Its championship week, and basically everyone who is playing this week is already ranked.

* * * * *
Dropped from the Rankings -

Texas Tech - Just because. I have no idea why I ranked them last week.

* * * * *
No Fucking Way, What? Hawaii is Ranked?

Yes. I was very impressed by that brutal beating of Boise State. It took 13 weeks, but they finally made my ballot. Not only that, but if they beat Washington - and based on what I saw last Friday, they should - they belong in a BCS bowl.

The Big 12 is the New Pac-10

2007-11-26T10:42:00.000-05:00

Remember way back when (as in, like, two months ago) when everyone (as in me) clowned Pac-10 football for having no defense and basketball scores every Saturday? Well, it occurred to me as I watched Missouri and Kansas sling the ball all over the yard for 64 total points Saturday night that the “basketball on grass” style football has moved a few hundred miles east and infested the Big 12.

Don’t get me wrong, I enjoy a good 36-28 game every once and a while, but would it kill the teams in that conference to mix in some defense occasionally just to make things interesting? Consider this:

Colorado scored 41 second half points to edge out Nebraska 65-51 on Friday. That is the second time that the Buffs have allowed 50+ points this month (they lost to Mizzou 55-10 on November 3rd)

Texas Tech, the team that introduced us to basketball on grass, lost to Oklahoma State 49-45 on September 22nd, then hung 75 on Northwestern State the next week, an lost to Texas two weeks ago 59-43.

The OK State Cowboys light up the scoreboard by scoring 33 points per game. How, you ask, are they only 6-6 then? Well, they give up 29 points per game so they are scoring that much just to keep up!

Kansas, who averages an astronomical 44 points per game, has scored over 50 points five times this year! They have scored over 60 twice! They put 76 on Nebraska for crying out loud! In fact, the 28 they scored against Mizzou was the fewest points they have scored all month by almost 20!!

Oklahoma, who also scores around 44 per game, got out of the gates with a 79-10 win in week one, then put up 51, 54, and 62 to round out the month of September.

Poor Baylor. The Bears were 0-8 in conference allowing 37 points per game. They have not allowed fewer than 30 since week four!

Texas, who scores a relatively modest 36 per game, has flirted with 60 three times this year, putting 58 on Rice, 56 on Iowa State, and 59 on Texas Tech.

Missouri, who could win the conference title while giving up 23 points per game, had scored 41, 42, 55, 40, and 49 points in their last five games heading into last week. Its really a shame they could only muster 36 against Kansas.

And don’t even get me started on Nebraska. Their defense provides about as much resistance as a stiff wind. Granted, I grew up on Big Ten Football, where the phrase “three yards and a cloud of dust” was made famous. So I may be a bit biased. But it should not be this easy to score 40, 50, 60, or even 70 points on a D-1 college football team playing any sort of defense.

Happy Thanksgiving!

2007-11-22T23:32:00.000-05:00

Enjoy your Turkey Day!

My EC Blogpoll Ballot - Week 13

2007-11-21T01:02:00.000-05:00

The weeks are winding down folks, so if you have missed this brilliance all season, we pity you. We run a blogpoll over at Epic Carnival that appears on the blog every week. Before you check out the rankings of all of the carnies, check out the ballot that I filled in with my comments:

1. LSU - How will they play with all of the Les Miles distractions?
2. Kansas - The showdown with Mizzou is where it should be: primetime
3. Missouri - Who would have thought this would be he game of the year?
4. Ohio State - Held Michigan to 91 total yards. 91. For the whole game.
5. Georgia - That ugly loss to Tennessee from a few weeks back is going to come back to bite them and keep them out of the SEC title game.
6. West Virginia - They keep proving me wrong.
7. Arizona State - They are here now, but I think they lose to USC on Thanksgiving night.
8. Texas - Whatever
9. Oregon - Sad, sad injury to Dixon.
10. Virginia Tech - They might get a re-match with Matt Ryan and BC in the ACC title game.
11. USC - Its going to be weird to see them in some random December bowl game.
12. Oklahoma - They could still help a lot of teams out by winning the Big 12 Championship Game
13. Florida - The Heisman is Tebow's to lose now
14. Virginia - Who's excited to possibly see a UVA-BC ACC Title Game?!
15. Boston College - Nice rebound win at Clemson
16. Illinois - See you in the Capital One Bowl. They should be pretty good next year.
17. Tennessee - It took 16 4th quarter points and a missed FG to beat Vandy at home. There has never been a less-deserving conference championship game participant.
18. Wisconsin - Kind of a disappointing year for the Badgers.
19. Cincinnati - The Bearcats have a lot to build on for next year.
20. Clemson - Sorry they had to lose to BC, but what a game.
21. Texas Tech - Mike Leach is still a Douche.

* * * * *
Others Receiving Consideration:

Auburn - Should be able to handle a reeling 'Bama team in the Iron Bowl.

* * * * *
Dropped From the Rankings:

Kentucky - I would LOVE to put them in my final poll. Doesn't look good though.

* * * * *
Finally, FINALLY, One Will Beat Them and End This Charade:

Hawaii

Nice Fucking Team (Version 2.0)

2007-11-18T18:30:00.000-05:00

"Its irritating. I hate losing to Ohio State. I would rather lose to Appalachian State."

-Michael Hart

Well Mike, you are in the unique position of being able to make that comparison.

Congratulations on a great four year career that includes exactly zero wins over OSU, and was capped off by Saturday's stellar total of 44 yards.

As a Buckeye fan, I can truly say this: you will be missed.

I'm as Mad as Hell, and I'm Not Going to Take it Anymore

2007-11-18T16:35:00.000-05:00

You know what makes me mad? College football arguments.

They're stupid, they begin every season like clockwork around this time, and nothing is ever solved. Not only that, but the same tired arguments are made every year:

The "My Conference is Better Than Your Conference" Argument.

This argument is mind-numbing. Pac-10 fans think their conference is the best. Southerners think the SEC is the best. Everyone clowns the Big 10 for being weak. Folks, all of the six power conferences are about the same. They all have good teams, (are there ANY great teams this year? I can't find one) they all have bad teams, and they all have a lot of average teams.

The SEC has more above-average teams than most conferences, so if you held a gun to my head, I guess I would call it the best conference, but it isn't nearly as strong as most would have you believe. If it were, then teams like Alabama wouldn't be losing to below .5oo teams from the Sun Belt Conference.

The Big Ten isn't as weak as its detractors say it is either. No, the conference isn't as strong as it was in the 90s, but are Ohio State, Illinois, and Wisconsin really that much worse then Arizona State, USC, and Oregon? Does Northwestern really suck that much more than Washington State sucks?

The "This Team Deserves to Play in the Title Game More than That Team" Argument.

Stupid, stupid argument. Lets look at three one-loss teams: Arizona State, Ohio State, and Missouri. Who is most "deserving?" Each has played average to below-average schedule, each has lost to a team thas proven to be good, but not great, each has looked dominant at times, weak at others. What about Kansas? Where do they fit in? West Virginia? Its just a jumbled mess, and you can argue about it till you're blue in the face and there will never be any resolution. The bottom line is we need a playoff and this year proves that more than any other.

The Strength of Schedule Argument

This is really a derivative of the previous argument, but it deserves to be handled individually.

Lets just say this once and for all: Everyone, EVERYONE, schedules non-conference patsies. The system, where one loss is devastating and two losses are fatal, gives teams incentive to do so. There are also no exibition games, so teams write checks to in-state cupcakes to come catch a beat-down.

The conference schedule set in stone. So you cannot fault a team for having a weak conference schedule. Kansas' conference schedule is a joke (they miss Oklahoma and Texas) but you know what? There is nothing they can do about it.

The Heisman Argument

Pisses me off to no end. Is Tim Tebow the front-runner because Dennis Dixon got hurt? Or did Dixon's injury, and the subsequent collapse by the Ducks immediately afterward, actually help his cause in that it showed his value to the team? What about Darren McFadden? He was second in the balloting last year, and even more valuable this year, yet he is rarely mentioned. And GODDAMMIT WHAT ABOUT CHASE DANIEL??

Oh, one more thing: No, all of these arguments are not good for the sport. If I hear one more BCS proponent say that, I am going to throw my TV through a window.

The Good, The Bad, The Ugly: NFL Primer Week 11

2007-11-15T15:02:00.000-05:00

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly is a weekly NFL primer. Nothing is sacred, not the players, not the coaches, and certainly not the betting lines.

Lookey here, new layout with pictures for every discussion. I'm en fuego.

The Good: Pittsburgh Steelers
As a Browns fan, and a fan raised on Cleveland sports, it pains me greatly to acknowledge the bitter rival Steelers as the good. But, it's really something I should get used to, right? I mean since the defeat last Sunday, it's been roughly 10 straight meetings that the Steelers have won. Some may even start the whole chant of this even not being a rivalry when it's been so completely one sided. Yes, right on all points, but that's not what I want to talk about, because my Zoloft is too far away.

The Steelers didn't play well this past weekend and still came back to beat the Browns, it really shows how good they are when they can win a game that they aren't playing their best in. Also, don't forget they can really turn it on both defensively and offensively, seeing as they gave up nary a first down in the second half; the only 7 points were scored on some mind bogglingly ridiculous special teams play by Joshua Cribbs. Their defense made plays, their offense made plays, and all their young seemingly inexperienced coaches and players did what they needed to win. Conventional wisdom suggests that with a first year coach, a team will struggle, but this team has shown nothing of the sort with ~~Omar Epps~~ Mike Tomlin at the helm.

They've got the players and the coaches and all that jazz, and have had only one losing season in God knows how long. But that's not even what makes them good: it's the solidarity and cohesiveness in the front office. There's no firings there, no quick turnover, and certainly no turmoil; they provide a steady hand for a franchise that has been exactly that. The Rooneys create an environment where success is bred, one where every player and coach knows what is expected, but they willingly work for that, not forcefully.

It's this kind of dedication and foundation that has only three head coaches in nearly the last 40 years. Stability. It's this kind of front office and scouting that brings in players that fit the system and love the family. Resourcefulness. And it's this kind of forward thinking that leads for one down year to pave the way for years of prosperity. Championships. Say what you will about the crisp and lethal nature of the Patriots organization, but they haven't enjoyed the sustained success that the Steelers have. And its these Steelers that stand as the last line between the Patriots and an undefeated season.

The Bad: Indianapolis Colts injuries
Just a mere week ago, the Indianapolis Colts were on the fringe of being one of the best teams in the league. They had lost a heart breaker to the Patriots, but really, no one else has beaten them, and certainly the Colts had come the closest. They were good enough to lead by 10 points in the fourth quarter, but not good enough to lead by the end of it. Fear not, they were playing with their best players injured! Surely that would quell the local disappointment, if only for a week.

Ah, but there's the rub. A week later, this team is not the same team that won its first seven games. It's not the same team that had brought the Patriots to the brink of defeat. It's not even the same team that could make the playoffs without breaking a sweat.

The Colts are in the midst of starting to worry about their season. With everything cruising along, injuries have completely decimated this team, with the biggest loss being the season ending foot surgery to Dwight Freeney. They picked up Simeon Rice, but let's be honest here, he's merely half the one dimensional player he once was, and certainly doesn't command the physical attributes, nor the fear to necessitate double teams. The offense was great, but it was really the defense, now a shell of its former self, that was going to guide this team to a repeat. They're injured, crippled, and no longer instill the fear they did merely a game into this season.

This team has been brought to its knees, and the football opponent had nothing to do with it.

The Ugly: Quarterback carousel
In a year where we have some of the best and most outstanding quarterback play in the national football league is also the year we have the worst. Over the last couple of years we've seen the trend of winners shy away from building around a caretaker quarterback and more of a play maker, because let's be honest - the man handles the ball on nearly every offensive play. So, is it any coincidence that inconsistent quarterback play and carousels are on teams with less than sparkling records?

Out of the 32 teams playing this weekend, 13 (give or take 3) teams have questions about their quarterback for this game and going forward. In fact, some don't even know if they're going to use their second string for the rest of the year, next year, or go into the draft to find a player to lead their team. Three teams are possibly the worst poised to solve this quandary by this season or next.

The Chicago Bears, Baltimore Ravens, and Minnesota Vikings all have quarterbacks on their roster that have played significant snaps and yet shown that they are not NFL starting material. They've switched back and forth, in hopes of finding the right combination of plays and talent that will eventually translate into wins.

Chicago Bears benched Rex Grossman because of his poor play, only to pin their hopes to Brian Griese, a man that was kicked out of three different systems for having neither the tools to make the play nor the brains to analyze what play needs to be made. Sans a couple of good throws the both have largely been an embarrassment at the position.

Baltimore Ravens thought that a veteran quarterback was the piece they needed, combined with their defense to lead them back to the Superbowl. But all they've gotten out of McNair was what we all believed: an old broken player. Kyle Boller has been worse than an injured old man, continually holding on to the ball and refusing to make plays, even after being the Robo QB coming out of college.

The Minnesota Vikings called Tarvaris Jackson a more mature Donovan McNabb at the same age, and from this we learned: Brad Childress should not be an NFL coach. From Tarvaris, the Vikings this year have gotten less combined touchdowns (2 passing, 1 rushing) than either interceptions or sacks (5 each), and a below 50% completion percentage. Adrian Peterson has rushed for more yards than Jackson has thrown for. And let me be the first to break the news to you Brad, being from Cleveland originally, Kelly Holcomb is not the answer.

Same league, same year, three quarterbacks are playing the position nearly better than anyone has ever, and three teams can't seem to find even a caretaker. That is sad on so many levels.

Dwight Freeny's season over [Indianapolis Star]
Colts injuries mount [USA Today]
Photo: NFL Guru, Indy Star, JS Online

My EC Blogpoll Ballot - Week 12

2007-11-13T21:29:00.000-05:00

There are times when filling this out is a labor of love, and there are times when it sucks. Actually, I take that back, its a pretty tedious task every week. But its even worse when Ohio State loses. Nevertheless, we run a blogpoll over at Epic Carnival that appears on the blog every week. Before you check out the rankings of all of the carnies, check out the ballot that I filled in with my comments:

1. Oregon - With their remaining schedule they should cruise to the title game
2. LSU - How lucky will they be if they draw Tennessee in the SEC title game?
3. Oklahoma - Not a lot of difference between them and Ohio State, but when you lose early, and you can make up ground
4. Kansas - Their schedule is pretty weak thus far, but I give 'em the benefit of the doubt.
5. Missouri - What will the over/under be on November 24th? 80?
6. Georgia - I can't figure these Dawgs out.
7. Ohio State - I told you not to look past Illinois!
8. West Virginia - I have never thought less of a team in the top 10. What a weak year.
9. Texas - Whatever
10. Arizona State - Is there a 1-loss team in the nation that you feel really good about right now?
11. USC - Not them
12. Virginia Tech - I feel better about these guys than many 1-loss teams, but that BC loss looks worse now
13. Florida - If UF didn't have 3 losses, Tim Tebow would be a shoe-in (shoo-in?) for the Heisman.
14. Virginia - Ok, ok, I was wrong about that whole "losing to Miami" thing
15. Clemson - Yeah, I guess I was wrong about this team too. Oh well.
16. Cincinnati - They beat WVU this weekend. Believe it.
17. Kentucky - I may be the only one, but I think Woodson is still in the Heisman race.
18. Tennessee - Just can't figure them out
19. Illinois - I gotta justify that OSU loss somehow. Therefore, they deserve to be ranked, right? RIGHT????
20. Wisconsin - Travis Beckum is a beast.
21. Boston College - Complete and utter fraud

* * * * *

Dropped From the Rankings:

Connecticut - If you didn't see that loss to Cinci coming, you haven't been paying attention.

Michigan - After all those nice things I said (through gritted teeth) about you.

* * * * *
Others Receiving Consideration:

Mississippi State - Sylvester Croom has to be the SEC coach of the year, right?

* * * * *

Maybe? MAYBE?? Naah.

Hawaii

The Good, The Bad, The Ugly: NFL Primer Week 10

2007-11-08T10:42:00.000-05:00

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly is a weekly NFL primer. Nothing is sacred, not the players, not the coaches, and certainly not the betting lines.

The Good: New Orleans Saints.
How did this happen? What exactly is going on this season? Not too long ago (specifically four games ago) the Saints were left for dead as they plummeted to a winless record in an embarrassing loss to the Panthers. We visit the resurgent Saints only four weeks later to find them only one game behind in the putrid division, and easily playing the best football they've played all year. It's as if someone stuck a needle in Drew Brees's ass, or at least his throwing shoulder, he's somewhat resurrected himself from the dead for not only the Saints but Fantasy Football owners. Now, the chances of starting 0-4 and then making a run at the playoffs or a championship are nearly unheard of, but winning four straight really helps.

I've been jaded by taking the Saints to win (and/or cover) for the first couple of weeks, hoping against hope that they would turn it around a little earlier than they did. After those four games, I was leery of picking for the Saints in nearly every circumstance, until they stuck it to me out in Seattle. Now that was an impressive showing, and it may turn their season about.

Ever since their loss, the Saints have not scored less than 20 points (22 against Atlanta), and topped 40 as Brees used the Jacksonville secondary like a scout team, rolling up 445 yards. This has certainly been the key for the immediate New Orleans turn around: Drew Brees is not throwing interceptions, and is getting the ball down field; sure, it also has a lot to do with his receivers being able to hang onto the ball. Hell, we know it has nothing to do with running the ball, as they do it only for looks: their leading rushing the last 4 games (Reggie Bush) has been averaging roughly 72 ypg, and a high of 97.

New Orleans certainly has reason to feel good. They are on a roll offensively, and their schedule for the rest of the year is less than daunting. That doesn't preclude the fact that this team still has its defensive issues. However, with the way their offense is playing and the look of that division, there's no reason they couldn't have a second straight season in the playoffs.

The Bad: San Diego Chargers.
The Chargers were the laughing stock of the league after losing games when they brought back almost their entire team that rocked the record to the tune of 14-2 last year, sans coaching. At first this was attributed to the fact that they started the year with two extremely good teams in the Chicago Bears and New England Patriots, but one of those has shown to be a fraud. But when they continued to struggle against everybody else it was clear something else was up, maybe their coaching staff. For years, Norv Turner has been able to get the least amount out of his players both on offense and defense, and it is his hire that perplexed every NFL fan out there.

The Mt. Vesuvius of coaching failure was reached last week, when they allowed rookie running back Adrian Peterson to run for a league record 296 yards. It's great, because that means the Browns are now out of the record books. Now, I think Adrian Peterson is awesome too, and that offensive line is pretty good so no disrespect to them but wasn't this the same Chargers defense that allowed rushing yards in the teens last year? Adrian Peterson may be the next Eric Dickerson, but even he didn't rush for 296 yards in a game. When San Diego started putting a couple of wins on the board we all thought that they were back, and maybe Norv Turner might not be the biggest fuckup as coach, but he's cemented himself by running this loaded team into the ground.

How does a team with such an explosive offense regress so significantly in one year? Maybe it's because Phillip Rivers wasn't the stud he showed himself to be last year. This year, with the onus on him to make plays, he's been stuck with Rookie Eyes (everything is too fast), and his stats throughout the season bear it out (1639, 10 TD, 8 INT, 82.9 rating). Why don't they let Tomlinson run the offense under center? He has a perfect 158.3 rating.

The Ugly: Andy Reid.
I've tried to stay away from this situation as much as possible, but it's hard to not rehash the same kind of ugly week in and week out (St. Louis Rams lost by the narrowest of margins, but there's always next week).

Andy Reid is an ugly feller to begin with, and I think we all wish that's what I could write about. His porn-thick mustache and his incessant sweating would be a welcome topic of conversation for the Philadelphia Eagles and their front office. No, this has to do with something more serious than just his looks, it's his family.

In the face of what can only be described as a family crisis, in the face of that, Reid has stood by his second family: his football team. That's honorable and everything for him to keep concentrating on his job, but isn't there something more important in life? From my point of view, family always comes first, especially something as important as one's children. And it's not like they're having some minor issues that can be swept under the rug; both children are constantly being arrested for drug abuse. I think it's time to take a leave of absence and tend your family issues. It's a big problem when your son is shoving drugs in his anus so he can smuggle them into jail.

It's more than that really. One has to question if it was Reid's dedication to his football craft that caused this problem to begin with. We all have heard about the long days and short nights for football coaches, how it's not only a job year round, but day round. They get up as early as 5 am, and don't get home until it's equally dark outside, whether its the football season or not. Maybe it's time for football coaches, and maybe the football league to evaluate this kind of situation. There's no question that if fathers are away from their families so often, said families will eventually develop problems. All that being said, we all wish the Reid family the best on their hopeful road to recovery.

The Saints story (through week 5) [We Suck at Sports]
Norv Turner is an STD [Hot Chicks, Hot Picks]
NFL Stat [NFL.com]
Drugs penetrate Reid family [Conshy Recorder]
Photo: 2theadvocate

My EC Blogpoll Ballot - Week 11

2007-11-06T14:27:00.000-05:00

Sorry I missed this feature last week. Old man Leland was busting my hump over these reports. Anyway, we run a blogpoll over at Epic Carnival that appears on the blog every week. Before you check out the rankings of all of the carnies, check out the ballot that I filled in with my comments:

1. Oregon - They have the best win of any top team
2. Ohio State - They better not have a let-down, because the Illini have nothing more to play for besides ruining other people's seasons.
3. LSU - They could easily be undefeated. Or they could easily have three losses. For what its worth, the most entertaining team in the nation.
4. Oklahoma - regaining momentum. Maybe the best team in the nation, but we may never know because the crapped the bed in Boulder
5. Kansas - You hang three-quarters of a hundred on somebody, you move up.
6. West Virginia - Who would have thought that the Louisville-WVU game would have so little BCS implications?
7. Missouri - I am still continuing my one man "Chase Daniel for Heisman" campaign. November 24 can't get here soon enough.
8. Connecticut - Savor the flavor. If you lose to Cinci (which I think you will) you're going to drop like a stone.
9. Georgia - I think they lose to Auburn this week.
10. Texas - Whatever
11. Auburn - If they beat Georgia, they move back into the top 10. Who knew?
12. Boston College - It is simply inexcusable to lose at home, at night, to Florida Freaking State.
13. Arizona State - There is no shame in losing at Oregon.
14. USC - Did anyone else notice that they jumped ahead of Hawaii in the AP poll even though Hawaii was idle? How'd that happen?
15. Virginia Tech - Nice win at Georgia Tech. These guys are the kings of Thursday Night Football (except vs. BC)
16. Florida - Spurrier vs. the Gators. Should be a good one Saturday night
17. Kentucky - Don't look past Vandy! Don't make the same mistake South Carolina did!
18. Michigan - Hard to believe that they could still win the Big Ten title.
19. Virginia - I don't know how, but they keep winning close games.
20. Clemson - Maybe, just maybe I was wrong about how overrated they were.
21. Cincinnati - I think they beat UConn this week.

* * * * *
Dropped out:

Wake Forest - Knew that would happend eventually
South Florida - From #2 to unranked faster than a speeding bullet.

* * * * *
Others Receiving Consideration:

Arkansas - Hey! Nice to see you guys are still playing football down there! I think they beat Tennessee and re-enter the poll

* * * * *
Since "Bye Week" is the 3rd Toughest Week on Their Schedule, I Can't Give Them Consideration:

Hawaii

Wily Weis turns into Lloyd Carr???

2007-11-04T20:02:00.000-05:00

Picture this. 4th and 8, you're on your opponents 24 yd line, 40 secs left in the game, tie score 28-28....what do you do? Apparently if you're "ND Coaching God" and 4 time Super Bowl champ Charlie Weis, this is 4 down territory. Inexplicably, Weis sent his anemic offense out to pick up 9 yds when a 41 yd FG wins the game!!! This is not bravado, this is stupidity.

Of course, ND failed to pick up the 1st down and away the 2 teams went into OT. 3 OT's later, Charlie and ND lost 46-44 (on another shady two point conversion running call) This isn't a minor coaching hiccup, this is Grady Little in Game 7 of the ACLS, where every knowledgeable fan is screaming at the screen to make the right decision. Weis tonight placed his name at the top of the list among bonehead coaching mistakes of the past 5 years. Granted, this isn't for a BCS bowl birth, this isn't even a blip on the college football radar this year, except for this....Charlie Weis coaches at Notre Dame, a school with a multi-million dollar contract with NBC, so every decision is magnified.

As Tony Kornheiser calls them, ND is the "University of College Football in America." ND FIRED TYRONE WILLINGHAM FOR LESS, yet domers, myself included, the country over have supported Weis through this horrid stretch. My blind faith in Touchdown Charlie ends tonight. I am not calling for his head, I'm just sick of ND fans making him out to be infallible. ND's 43 year winning streak ended tonight solely because Weis overcoached his fragile team to defeat.

The Top 16 +1 - The Quack Attack Moves Up!!!

2007-11-04T06:47:00.000-05:00

1. Ohio State (#1) (10-0) - Illinois - Columbus got a little scare from Wisky before kicking it into high gear and cruising to a 21 point win....

2. Oregon (#4) (8-1) - BYE - mark this down - Oregon will be one of the teams in the BCS Title game....they too got a scare when QB Dennis Dixon left the game with a knee injury....things look okay though....

3. LSU (#3) (8-1) - La. Tech - a huge win for Les Miles....the Tigers had way too many penalties and were inconsistent at times.....but in the end, the Tiger fans are thrilled that Satan Saban lost....

4. Kansas (#5) (9-0) - @ Oklahoma State - a great win for Kansas....whenever you drop 76 on a Nebraska team, people have to take notice.....the Fighting Manginos have to be on Upset Alert this week when they play at Okie State....

5. Oklahoma (#6) (8-1) - Baylor - the Sooners are in cruise control....their next big test will be against Okie State.....

6. West Virginia (#8) (7-1) - Louisville (Thurs)- at the beginning of the season this Thursday’s game against Louisville looked like it would be a battle for Big East supremacy.....now it looks like another beatdown for a disappointing Louisville team....

7. Missouri (#9) (8-1) - Texas A&M - in consecutive weeks. A&M lost to Kansas and Oklahoma....they might as well go for the triple play and get pounded by Missouri....

8. Georgia (#10) (7-2) - Auburn - the Dawgs get back into SEC play and take on the Road Warriors - Auburn.....this is a bitter rivalry.....

9. Arizona State (#7) (8-1) - @ UCLA - it was a nice run by Sparky’s team....they still have a shot at a BCS bowl, but they have to get through tough games against USC and arch-rival Arizona....

10. Southern Cal (#12) (7-2) - Cal - USC should roll Cal in this game....the Golden Bears have fallen apart after that devastating loss to Oregon State....

11. Virginia Tech (#13) (7-2) - Florida State - the Hokies bounced back nicely after the heartbreaking loss to B.C.....the Seminoles took out BC on Saturday....I don’t see them going into Blacksburg and doing the same....

12. Michigan (#14) (8-2) - @ Wisconsin - Michigan was in serious trouble - down 10 points with 7 minutes left against Jim Tressel’s clone.....an impressive comeback....Wisky will be loaded with both PJ Hill and Lance Smith in the backfield....

13. Texas (#15) (8-2) - Texas Tech - the Longhorns may have gotten the signature win they have lacked all year with their comeback in Stillwater....

14. Boston College (#2) (8-1) - @ Maryland - the Eagles dream season is over....look for BC to lose two more games this season.....they are not impressive....

15. Boise State (#16) (8-1) - @ Utah State - Boise State is chugging along toward their November 23rd showdown at Hawaii...

16. Connecticut (8-1) - Syracuse - it looked as if South Florida was going to be the team of the year in the Big East....instead it is the little team from Storrs....

+1 Navy - God Bless their big hearts for finally ending Notre Dame’s 43 year winning streak.....

Dropped out
Alabama (6-3) - a nice effort by the Tide....SEC teams better be prepared because Nick Saban will win a national title at Alabama before he leaves....

Great Moments in Broadcasting - Desmond Howard

2007-11-03T11:44:00.000-04:00

So this morning I woke up and turned on college gameday to hear Desmond's analysis on the ending of the USC dynasty:

"They used to have guys they could count on like Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush, and LenDale White. But now all of those guys have passed on."

OH MY GOD!! What the hell happend?? How long was I asleep????

The Good, The Bad, The Ugly: NFL Primer Week 9

2007-10-31T15:11:00.000-04:00

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly is a weekly NFL primer. Nothing is sacred, not the players, not the coaches, and certainly not the betting lines.

The Good: The Game.
This one's easy, and for the first time in weeks we're talking about a game people would actually want to watch. The Indianapolis Colts and the New England Patriots are about to become the first teams to play each other when each is at least 7-0, setting up an epic battle; or at least what we hope is an epic battle.

The Indianapolis Colts are about to have their first game as an underdog at home, certainly that's virgin territory for this team. And it's unclear about what Vegas feels on this game, if they see New England as that good, or it's a statement about how quiet the Colts have been about their impressive start. It just doesn't seem that they do anything that great, besides of course Peyton Manning finding the ever open receivers jogging uncovered down the field. And yet, they're solid on both sides of the ball, it's been an impressive start. New England's impressive start can't possibly go unnoticed, especially by me since I have Brady on my fantasy team. They've been blowing people out college football style; 52-7 isn't an NFL score.

So what's going to happen? I'm glad you asked. It's being billed as an impressive matchup of titans, but just like many games, the on-the-field play will likely not live up to the commercials. In fact, I'm so unimpressed (still don't know why) with the Colts start that I'm just hoping they make a game of it, and don't get blown out. As is the case, I certainly don't feel they have a chance to win the game, and with a line of -6.5, the Colts will be lucky to keep it within two scores. Take the Pats to cover, as you have hopefully done all year, and you'll be in the money.

Here's hoping I'm wrong. The Bostonians will be insufferably annoying if all their teams win.

The Bad: The Jets.
It's funny how easy it is to find Bads and Uglies on a weekly basis. It's like going to a bar. Zing.

Honestly though, let's take a look at this team - the same team, mind you, that went 10-6 and got into the playoffs last year. What could possibly happen in one year to have the bottom fall out when no wholesale changes have been made. In fact, it's not only that, they've added parts that should have made them competitive with New England (ha!), but they've completely regressed. As Mike Greenberg said this morning, "I can't believe that Pete Kendall would be the downfall." He certainly isn't. It's a combination of things.

has set his foot in the ground that his team does not suck, and Eric If there's one thing that every Belichick disciple has in common, it's stubbornness. Charlie WeisMangini showed an equally thick head with the future of Chad Pennington. It's not that Chad Pennington is bad, it's that he handcuffs the offense. The truth is, he doesn't have a good arm to throw down field, but he has an excellent 20 yard floating pass. Which means, this offense works in a mostly 20-25 yard cushion plotting down field with nary a deep threat, which is okay. But this doesn't work in the NFL for the entire game. After a while, defenses get too good and they catch on; this allows them to stuff the run and predict routes, thus getting many three-and-outs. Because of this, the defense ends up being on the field an awful long time, and while this is good at the beginning of the game, it ends up biting them in the end. A simple change in week two should have been to bench Pennington, and it's getting done, but it's too little too late. The ship for the playoffs sailed, and the Jets are still at the dock.

The Ugly: Cincinnati Bengals situation
To be fair, it's not just the team on the field that's ugly, it's also the team off the field, and the front office. First of, what's going on the field is bordering on embarrassing for everyone involved. The defense can't stop nearly anyone, and the offense hasn't been in sync at almost any time this year. For a team loaded with offensive weapons that work so well together, having a full season last year and an off season this year with a healthy Carson Palmer throwing routes for Chad Johnson should have produced explosive, not mediocre results. The worst part on the defensive side had to be when the Bengals didn't have enough healthy bodies to fill in at linebacker earlier in the year. This leads us directly to...

Off the field issues have bothered the team, very obviously, more than anyone thought it would - specifically one Marvin Lewis. It was obvious that when he went on what was then the Dan Patrick Show and tried to convince us all that the Bengals did not have a jailbird issue, he is out of touch with reality, and out of touch with his team. It's hard to imagine what kind of guy he is behind closed doors, whether he's a player's coach, or a disciplinarian, but whatever he is isn't working. Maybe the problem is that he doesn't know and he waffles back and forth, thus creating a vague plan for the franchise down the road. Whatever happens the rest of this year, from an outsider's view, there's only one thing that can be done, and that's letting Lewis go. He did a great job building this franchise to respectability, something it hasn't sniffed for the last two decades. But it's obvious from this year there's no farther he can take them, and they're not buying into his system anymore, they're regressing in it.

Maybe he never had a chance. It's Cincinnati, after all.

Photo: Derok

The Patriots Have Given us Another Reason to Hate Them

2007-10-29T15:48:00.000-04:00

Check it out at Epic Carnival

BC Friday Recap, Saturday Picks

2007-10-26T21:32:00.000-04:00

If only the Breeders Cup were last weekend, when the temperature was in the mid 70's and there was nary a cloud in the sky! Instead, I'm home tonight, scrambling together all of the rain gear I can find and wondering whether the track will be listed as sloppy or underwater. The winner of the Classic this year might make a strong anchor in the 4X100 freestyle next year in Beijing.

While we didn't hit any bets, we learned a lot about how the track might play tomorrow, and a couple of my "underneath" horses (Maryfield and Corinthian) actually won, so hopefully somebody made money off of these picks, although that would actually assume that somebody is actually reading this blog. I felt great about Dream Rush going into this race, then watched in stunned silence as she set the pace at a beyond blistering 21 and 1/5 seconds for the first quarter mile. She of course tired late, but I still think she's the best sprinting filly in the country. Enough dwelling the past though, let's get to tomorrows races.

Juvenile Fillies-

IZARRA is exactly the type of filly I want to bet tomorrow. She is a West Coast invader who is bred to run all day (Distorted Humor out of a Broad Brush mare), and was nosed in the Oak Leaf at Santa Anita last month. Her speed figures are light, but again I think that has more to do with the tracks than the horses. She has shown talent, steady improvement and should only get better as the distances increase. A 445 Tomlinson number for the slop doesn't hurt either. Behind her, a lot of horses could be interesting if the price is right. Throw out PHANTOM INCOME's races at the Spa and she fits well... the first race the gate crew opened the gates before Coa was in the irons and she clearly was shaken up by it. She came back strong at the Meadowlands last month and may offer a great value. INDIAN BLESSING will be the deserving favorite after her open lengths score in the Frizzete. I love her sire, Indian Charlie, but I'm suspicious about how she tired late in her last race. She's going to be a short price, so I'd presume pass and let her beat me. SMARTY DEB is another improving filly who should like more distance. She's another one who is bred for the slop, and should be sitting in a good position just off the leaders. PROUD SPELL was able to parlay two wins in Delaware into a big Matron win for trainer Larry Jones. She is similar to me to Indian Blessing, so I'd prefer her at higher odds.

The bet-

$10 Win/Place IZARRA
$2 Exacta Box IZARRA, PROUD SPELL, SMARTY DEB

Juvenile-

I'll take a shot against likely favorite WAR PASS here. He's clearly got a world of talent, but has taken open length leads around the track, and should have more pressure today. Instead, I will look to PYRO, who was closing like a freight train to almost catch WAR PASS in the Champagne. He should appreciate the extra distance, and is bred to relish an off track. I am a bit suspicious of that Champagne race, or more specifically how high the speed figures earned from it were. That makes TALE OF EKATI interesting, as he has run well despite rough trips in his last two races. Barclay Tagg knows a thing or two about conditioning a horse, and his impressive workout on the 22nd (45.3 for 4 furlongs, best of 48 at the distance) says hes ready to go. SALUTE THE SARGE is a West Coast invader who also is improving, and may be worth a look at double digit odds. WICKED STYLE looks just decent on paper, but I was intrigued by two things. He was able to wire the field at Keeneland, a track with a severe bias against early speed, and his sire, BC Juvenile champ Macho Uno, looks like he could become a very nice stallion.

The bet-

$5 Exacta box TALE OF EKATI and PYRO
$2 Trifecta box TALE OF EKATI, PYRO, SALUTE THE SARGE, and WICKED STYLE

F/M Turf

What a crapshoot this race is. I could make a case for just about any horse in the field, as is the case for most turf races on any BC day. Despite her 7 for 7 record, I'm not sold NASHOBA'S KEY is a champion filly, which is my rule of thumb for betting favorites on BC day. She has run against small fields out west, and she is likely to be a short price. Same goes for HONEY RYDER, who is probably the best turf mare in the country, but has no interest in running over a soft surface. I'll take a shot on DANZON, who comes into this race off an impressive polytrack score in a Grade III race. She has a nice late kick, and has run her best race over a yielding surface.

The bet-

$10 Win/Place DANZON

Sprint-

GREG'S GOLD was able to do something very few horses could this summer, race towards the lead and win at Del Mar. Somehow found a ton of trouble in a 5 horse field last time out, but should be tough here. These races always offer a ton of speed, which should set up a closer like BENNY THE BULL quite well. My hope, though, is that the public lets MIDNIGHT LUTE go at 3/1 or higher. His Forego win was the real deal, and he hasn't missed a beat since.

The bet-

$20 Win MIDNIGHT LUTE at 3/1 or higher, if not
$5 Exacta box MIDNIGHT LUTE with BENNY THE BULL and GREG'S GOLD

Mile-

I'm hoping to pick a horse this year that finishes in the top half of the field, which would be the first time for me in the BC Mile. EXCELLENT ART is a deserving favorite, and if for some reason his odds drift up to 5/2 or more I think hes worth a play. He is a champion miler from England who has already run well over a soft going, which is more than you can say for any other horse in this field. TRIPPI'S STORM seems well suited for the distance, and is coming into his own nicely. This gelding could have been claimed back in March for 50k, and is now running in a two million dollar race. Not a bad sport, huh? JEREMY might have needed his last race, but could be tough here. NOBIZ LIKE SHOWBIZ has transformed into a top notch turf horse, but this race might be a little too short for him. He is undefeated in three starts on the turf, and I expect an impressive outing from him tomorrow.

The bet-

$5 Trifecta EXCELLENT ART on top of TRIPPI'S STORM, JEREMY, and NOBIZ LIKE SHOWBIZ

Distaff-

To be the champ, you have to beat the champ, and that is precisely what LEAR'S PRINCESS did in her latest score over Belmont champ Rags to Riches. Blinkers clearly helped this three yr old filly, who is bred up and down like Derby champ Barbaro. She's won on dirt, polytrack, and turf, so I don't think the sloppy track will hurt her. INDIAN VALE is 6 for 7 at this distance with one 2nd, and should sit in a good spot tracking the early leaders. HYSTERICALADY ran one of her best races at Monmouth, but the track will play a lot different today, and her outside post position could hurt her.

The bet-

$20 Win/Place LEAR'S PRINCESS

Turf-

Dylan Thomas

The bet-

$50 Win DYLAN THOMAS

Classic-

This is probably the best and most competitive field in the race, so let's break down each horses chances.

Lawyer Ron-Possibly the favorite, he certainly perked up at the Spa this summer with romps in the Whitney and Woodward. There is a chance he might get overlooked, but I still think he is a better horse at a 1 1/8, and may also just be a better horse at Saratoga.

Street Sense- Ignore his last race; there was no pace, and rival Hard Spun was able to set easy fractions and have enough in the tank to hold off Street Sense in the lane. The bottom line with this horse is he has won possibly the three biggest races you can win at this point in his career (BC Juvenile, KY Derby, and Travers) and always shows up in the big race. Very dangerous.

Any Given Saturday- His last race wasn't his best, but he still won, and after all it was just a prep for today. Clearly has become a better horse since the Derby, and his best race was at this track to boot. Granted, the track should play a lot differently today, but he is bred to love the slop. Should be very tough.

Curlin- Never raced as a two year old, the Preakness champ rose fast and furiously from a maiden win in February to get where he is today. He beat Lawyer Ron in his latest, and probably has as good a shot as any to get the win.

George Washington- Actually ran very well last year in the Classic for someone who never runs on the dirt, but still was 7 lengths back from Invasor. Was originally retired last year, but brought back to track when he had problems in the breeding shed (insert joke here). Even though I feel bad for him and his "problems", it's hard to figure him here today.

Awesome Gem- Apparently, the best handicap horse on the West Coast is good for 30-1 in this race. He's a cut below the Street Sense's and Curlin's of the world, but he will be flying late, and at odds of around 30-1, deserves some money.

Diamond Stripes- Will come from off the pace, this gelding is very consistent although probably a cut below. He brings his A game every time, though, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him get up for a piece.

Hard Spun- Hard not to respect this horse, especially after his gutty performance in the King's Bishop. Should get extra support after beating Street Sense last month, but I still think he's best at 7 furlongs or a mile.

Tiago- Sons of Pleasant Tap tend to get better with age, and Tiago appears to be no exception. Wasn't quite ready to compete with some of these during the Triple Crown, but clearly has improved over the summer, capped by his Goodwood win. I'm interested to see how the public views him tomorrow, but if his odds drift up over 15/1, I would certainly consider him

The bet-

$20 Win/Place STREET SENSE
$10 Win/Place/Show AWESOME GEM

College Football Weekend Preview (Week 9)

2007-10-26T11:40:00.001-04:00

Let me start off by giving some props to BC for last night's comeback win in Blacksburg. All it took was a miracle 2 touchdowns in the final two minutes of the game! After an onside recovery, Matt Ryan chucked up a 25 yd duck across his body that went nearly the whole length of the field, somehow eluding the outstretched arms of two defenders, for a TD to seal the BC victory. If I hear one more commentator describe him or that play as "Flutie-esque", I might lose my mind! So again, congrats to BC on 58 minutes of mediocre football followed by 2 minutes of dumb luck. Bitter, table of one please.

Moving on to the task at hand, this week boasts plenty of quality matchups between ranked opponents, and if recent history dictates, more than a few surprises along the way. Two matchups in the Big East promise to clear up the log jam near the top of the conference and two Pac 10 showdowns will prove who's a pretender and who's legit out west. So let's dive in....

Pitt @Louisville (noon)-- I thought I should point out that Louisville had high expectations coming into the season, and they have fallen flat on their face. Louisville's problem is Defense or the lack thereof, giving up 35 points or more to Syracuse, Utah and MIDDLE TENN. ST. this season. Brian Brohm is having his best year yet throwing for 25 TD's and only 6 picks, but he's also been forced to throw early and often to keep his team in every game. For Pitt, a freshman QB, injuries and a semi-retarded head coach sunk that ship. Still, if they could eek out a win tomorrow, they're season to date would be considered a relative success. However, against quality opponents Pitt hasn't put up more than 17 points all season and I can't imagine Brohm's offense scoring less than 4 TD's....and as always, the smart money bets against Wanny!
Pick: Louisville -9.5

#7 West Virginia @Rutgers (Noon) -- With home losses this year to Maryland and Cincy, Rutgers Stadium doesn't exactly have opposing players shaking in their cleats. The Scarlet Knights did, however, get their season back on track with a big home victory last Thursday against South Florida (it's worth noting that S. Fla. is West Virginia's only loss of the year, although I don't believe in the transative property in sports). Both these teams boast all-american running backs and both have smart innovative coaches, so no edge there. Mike Teel has been much improved this season, but Pat White he is not. WVU to win, but bettors beware.
Pick: Rutgers +6

#12USC @#5Oregon (3:00) -- Is it just me or is Dennis Dixon built like a flamingo? This kid has the scrawniest legs since Steve Urkel, yet he's a Heisman front runner rarely mentioned among the elite QB's in the nation. Meanwhile the USC quarterback situation remains fluid. Mark Snachez smoked the Fighting Irish last week (fighting back tears) but Booty seems healthy enough to go. Either way, the inconsistent Trojans (one word: Satnford) march into Autzen Stadium Saturday in an unfamiliar position, as underdogs. The Ducks have been flying under the radar all year, so a big win in a nationally televised game will go along way to earning national respect and key BCS votes.
Pick: Oregon -3

#10 S. Fla @#23U. Conn (3:30) -- If I asked 10 college football fans who currently sits atop the Big East, I'm not sure anyone would say Connecticut. U Conn beat Louisville last week to remain perfect in conference (of course it took a group effort, and by that I mean the officiating crew). S.Fla. is "the troof" this year....or at least they can tackle the ball carrier every once in a while, which is better than Louisville's swiss cheese defense, U Conn's last opponent. I love S. Fla. to bounce back after a tough loss to Rutgers.
Pick: South Florida -4.5

#11Florida @#18Georgia (3:30) -- For one day every year I long to be in Jacksonville, the annual site of the "World's largest outdoor cocktail party". This year is no different. Not much analysis on this one. Florida has two offensive weapons: Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin. That's it. That's all. That's enough.
Pick: Florida -7.5

#1Ohio State @#25Penn State (8:00) -- The #1 team in the land gets prime time exposure this week as the Buckeyes roll inito Happy Valley to contend with the Nittany Lions and 107,000 of their most rabid fans. OSU is clearly the better squad, but I think this game will be a dog fight. Penn State enjoys one of the biggest homefield advantages in the country, and the game will be contested at night (amid the PSU "white out")and in the rain which should neutralize OSU's athleticism and passing ability. Plus, PSU has a couple big home wins against Ohio St. in recent years. Expect the mud and slop to yield a low scoring game. In the end, OSU eeks out a win.
Pick: If you must, OSU +3, 40 UNDER

#21Cal @#4Arizona St. (10:15) -- The end of this game won't be seen by most people outside the left coast, and you can include me. I realize both of these teams are ranked, but I also question whether either should be! ASU hasn't faced one ranked opponent all year. In fact their 4 Pac 10 wins all came against the worst 4 teams in conference! It's a real who's who of west coast college football that ASU has beaten. On the other sideline we have former media darling Cal, who just came off back-to-back embarrassing losses--first at home to Orgeon St and then at UCLA. I think both of these teams will finish the year out of the top 20. If the Cal that beat Oregon shows up, come Sunday, ASU's cinderella run will be a distant memory, and the talking heads won't utter a word about them the rest of the year. That's the only rooting interest I have in this one.
Pick: Cal +3.5

Slainte!

Breeders Cup Friday Picks

2007-10-25T18:30:00.000-04:00

Here are my thoughts on the three Friday races... of course, these pick are GUARANTEED, or your money back!

Filly and Mare Sprint-

The Breeders Cup kicks off this year with a showdown between multiple Grade I winner DREAM RUSH and upstart LA TRAVIATA, whose is making only her fourth lifetime start. That lack of experience I believe will ultimately cost her a chance at a win, as she has never been challenged on the lead in her brief career. As for Dream Rush, I think she has a great shot at winning. Truthfully, despite winning two Grade I's in her career, she hasn't exactly faced a great filly yet, but she also hasn't done anything wrong. Her two losses were by a length or less, one of which was an allowance race where the connections intentionally held her back a bit to let her get some dirt get kicked in her face (she ended up being boxed in through most of the stretch and ran out of room). I think that experience will help her tomorrow. While she has been on the lead most of her career, again I believe that is because she hasn't faced super fast fillies yet, but will be perfectly content sitting a length or so off the pace if need be. Her breeding for the slop (410 Tomlinson) can't hurt, either.

Still, at odds of 5/2 or less, I can't blame anyone for trying to beat her. MARYFIELD and OPRAH WINNEY may be the best options. Both are coming into this race in top form, and both have an affinity for an off surface. Both will likely be stalking the expected hot pace, which may prove to be the spot to be. It will be important to see how speed favoring the track is playing tomorrow. With the expected rain tonight and tomorrow, it is very possible the track may have an extreme speed bias (imagine having mud kicked in YOUR face for half a mile or more), which would potentially hurt Maryfield, as she more likely to be more off the pace. Still, I think both horses should have a good account for themselves tomorrow.

The bet-

$10 win DREAM RUSH
$5 exacta box DREAM RUSH over MARYFIELD and OPRAH WINNEY

Juvenile Turf-

Boy is this race hard to figure... not only 2 yr olds tough to figure in general, throw in the fact that many of these have yet to face each other AND they will be racing over a yielding sod, and you have a recipe for a real long shot. As always in these races, you have to favor the Euros coming over, who are generally much better on the grass, and the best of those appears to be STRIKE THE DEAL. The Grade II winner is coming into this race off of a strong 2nd in a Grade I in England after being in tight quarters coming for home. His sire, Van Nistelrooy, is an interesting young Storm Cat sire whose progeny have done well on the dirt and turf (even the Del Mar "surface"). He looks to be a deserving favorite, and although I would prefer trying to hit a bomb in this one, if he's at 9/2 or better as his morning line suggests, I think he is worth a shot.

ACHILL ISLAND is another Euro invader who deserves a long look. His last race was a close 2nd at Ascot over a soft going, which should set him up well tomorrow. He may vie for favoritism, and also might be worth a look if his odds drift up towards 5/1 or more. If you need a US colt, either THE LEOPARD, a 2.5 million dollar Storm Cat colt who wired the field in the Pilgrim, or GIO PONTI, the Bourbon winner, are worth a shot at 10 to 1 or more. If you want to go with an exacta or trifecta bet, I think you need to throw in some long shots underneath, as this race is likely to have some bombs hit the board.

The bet-

$10 Win/Place STRIKE THE DEAL
$5 Win/Place GIO PONTI

Dirt Mile-

This race is just loaded with question marks. Eleven months ago, there was a legitimate case to be made that DISCREET CAT was in fact the best 3YO on the planet, even better than Barbaro and Bernardini. Undefeated and fresh off of an ultra impressive Cigar Mile score at the big A, Discreet Cat looked unstoppable heading into his 4YO season. Of course, that horse has yet to show up in 2007, making this race wide open. If the Discreet Cat of old shows up, he wins, but my guess is that he doesn't. At this point, you have to be concerned that he has had FOUR lengthy layoffs in his career already, and run in only 8 races in 26 months. I'm sure he needed his last race and it may set him up well tomorrow, but at 2/1 I'm not interested in finding out.

If you really want a horse that on his best day is very tough, why not try HIGH FINANCE at much longer odds. As someone affiliated with West Point Thoroughbreds (I am a part owner in a few horses they syndicate, none of which are running this weekend), I have followed this horse his entire career, and he is flat out a weird dude. Sometimes he seems to have no interest and will throw in the towel despite setting moderate fractions. Other times, he'll go 21 and 44 and still be full or run. I have absolutely no idea which High Finance shows up tomorrow, but if the latter does, he will be very tough to beat at very high odds.

There is a ton of speed in this race, so it could fall apart for a horse like CORINTHIAN, who should be comfortably off of the pace. He too is another frustrating horse to root for, as he seems to have a world of talent but hasn't been terribly consistent. The cutback in distance should help him, though, and he should be flying at the end.

The bet-

$10 Win/Place HIGH FINANCE
$10 Exacta box HIGH FINANCE and CORINTHIAN

My EC Blogpoll Ballot - Week 9

2007-10-24T17:11:00.000-04:00

As you have GOT to know by now, we run a blogpoll over at Epic Carnival that appears on the blog every week. Before you check out the rankings of all of the carnies, check out the ballot that I filled in with my comments:

1. Ohio State - That Michigan State game was not as close as the score would indicate. We will see how good the Buckeyes are Saturday.
2. Boston College - Both #1 and #2 are in their spots by default. And I think that both could easily lose this week.
3. LSU - Nobody has bigger balls then Les Miles
4. Oregon - Best offense in the Pac-10. How did they lose a home game to those frauds down in Berkeley?
5. Florida - Tim Tebow, Percy Harvin, and not much else... But that seems to be enough lately
6. Arizona State - You better beat Cal if you want to stay up here
7. Oklahoma - A top 5 team shouldn't need to escape against Iowa State.
8. Virginia Tech - I think they win comfortably against BC this week.
9. Kansas - Avoided an obvious trap game in Boulder. They basically have a cake-walk to their final game against Mizzou
10. Kentucky - They are who I thought they were!
11. Missouri - Nice win over Texas Tech. They too have a cake-walk till Nov 24th
12. USC - Easy with all of the "Sanchez should be the starter" talk.
13. South Florida - Told you they would lose to Rutgers!
14. West Virginia - Ok, if they look impressive at Rutgers I promise I'll stop calling them overrated
15. Virginia - Avoided an obvious trap at Maryland. But I still am not sold on this team.
16. Georgia - Florida should crush them in the "Cocktail Party" this weekend.
17. Texas - Whatever.
18. Michigan - To paraphrase Digger Phelps' laughable speech and the Notre Dame Pep rally, "They ain't dead yet!"
19. South Carolina - How do expect to win the SEC when you lose a gimme against Vandy? AT HOME??
20. Auburn - 7 seconds away from beating Florida and LSU on the road. Pretty impressive.
21. Penn State - If they beat Ohio State, they could make a huge jump up on my ballot

* * * * *
Dropped out:

Tennessee - I gave them a second chance after they blew out Georgia, but I'm done with them now!
Texas Tech - Who didn't see that loss to Mizzou coming?
Cal - They suck. How did they lose to a pathetic UCLA team?

* * * * *
Others Receiving Consideration:

Rutgers - Fell off the map after two straight losses, but I think they beat West Virginia next, and re-enter the poll.

* * * * *
Maybe They'll Get Consideration if They Can Beat a Tough New Mexico State Team This Weekend at Th-- Dammit! I Almost Got Through That With a Straight Face:

Hawaii

The Good, The Bad, The Ugly: NFL Primer Week 8

2007-10-24T10:05:00.000-04:00

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly is a weekly NFL primer. Nothing is sacred, not the players, not the coaches, and certainly not the betting lines.

The Good: New York Giants.
That's right, I said it, and I won't apologize for it: the New York Giants are good football team. Some may point back at last year, when at this time the Giants were equally impressive on paper, leading the division and starting out on fire. The difference of course is the taste it left in everyone's mouth. While yes, they were winning, they had some serious hemorrhaging going on at the team and coaching levels. Eli wasn't really playing well, and the team was winning in spite of him instead of beside him. Beyond that, you could see the beginning of another late season collapse under what everyone considered a lame duck coach.

Fast forward a year, and the team is going in the complete opposite direction. There's been no player mutiny, so really, that puts them well ahead of last year's success pace. The defense, thought to be crappy is coming together, and they now possess the most feared third down defensive line in the league. Offense hasn't been pretty at times, but they're one of the few teams to really pile up points on the Herculean (or they'll have you believe) defense of the Cowboys. Sure, they're winning so everyone is smiling, but it's more than that - people are healthy. They seem to be really clicking and now get a vacation to England only to play a Junior Varsity team between the hash marks. What was once seen as a disaster, by yours truly included, at the beginning of the season has turned out to be a healthy surprise for their fans and the league. It's hard to imagine that this would be said in the pre-season, when players were holding out, and there was havoc in the office.

The Bad: This weekend's games.
Looking over the schedule, I've yet to find a good game that I would even pay to watch. The parity that has created a whirlwind of love for the NFL has faded this year, and introduced another wave of dominant teams. There are currently two undefeated teams in the league (Colts, Patriots) and another one loss team that seems to be dominating it's own conference. This weekend provides a lack of interesting games to watch, and it would really kill the NFL if not for gambling. That's right, how about we make the games interesting by trying to win money. I like money.

Money makers: It's a home underdog league. Disclaimer, lines will change.

MINNESOTA +1 vs. Philadelphia. Purple Jesus all the way folks. Ever since he got significant playing time, he's set the world on fire, and he hasn't gotten hurt yet. All this with a quarterback as ineffective as the head coach.

SAN FRANCISCO +3 vs. New Orleans. This Saints team is completely Jekyll and Hyde, and this is their second cross-country trip in as many weeks. They haven't figured anything out, the win was a one-week aberration.

CAROLINA +7 vs. Indianapolis. Yeah, I know: undefeated, have Peyton Manning, playing equally awesome to Patriots. Here's another thing: looking ahead. Colts are still injured and are resting for the Patriots, and have never looked all that great on grass.

You'll thank me later.

The Ugly: Miami Dolphins.
There's nothing uglier than the Miami Dolphins right now in the history of the NFL, and it gets uglier by the week. They are winless on the year, and are being outcast to another country because no one wants to watch them here. The fun question and possibility to toss around right now, is whether the Dolphins could accomplish the unimaginative and completely uninspiring winless season. Of course the irony of even bringing this up, is the fact that the only team to have an undefeated season (so far) is your grandpa's Miami Dolphins. Their biggest competition for an unbeaten season and the first pick in the draft is St. Louis, who is so miserable that I can't even name healthy player on that team. In fact, while having a winless season would be a huge badge of inadequacy, the only thing worse is to win a game at this point only to lose out on the #1 pick in the draft. Seeing Miami's luck lately, I wouldn't put it by them.

How bad is it getting in Miami? Well, if there's a sign of being in the basement of the NFL, it's trying to bring back Ricky Williams to be your featured back; that is of course after their featured back left his ACL on the field. There's nary a real starter on any position on the field. In fact, to fill sports at safety, the Dolphins signed a player that was working out at home, solely because he has a passport and can travel overseas. If that's how you fill your roster, fellas. Things aren't looking up, they play an aggressive Giants front that will cause havoc in the backfield, which as we've seen is devoid of any playmakers. How's that Ted Ginn pick looking now, Cam? Really though, not his fault since he shouldn't have been hired to begin with. Pick anyone playing against the Dolphins no matter the spread. They're the anti-Patriots.

Is Ricky Williams the answer for the Dolphins? [Yahoo! Sports]
Ronnie Brown out for the season [Yahoo! Sports]
Photo: Slive

Is it over yet?

2007-10-22T20:07:00.000-04:00

Now, I'm a Mets fan, so clearly I have a high tolerance for pain. But Sunday night's deciding game between Cleveland and Boston? Excruciating.

Not because of the play -- until the 8th inning, the game was everything a Game 7 should be. There were run-saving double plays. Gutsy pitching. Big hits. And two heartbreaking plays involving Kenny Lofton on the basepaths (wait, Kenny Lofton still plays baseball??).

Problem was, by the time the bottom of the 8th rolled around and Boston started hitting like it was batting practice, it was nearly 11:30 at night. Now, I can stay up for a West Coast game with the best of them, but this match-up started at 8 p.m. At least, it was supposed to. First, there was the 20 minute pregame show, filled with canned banter delivered by whatever vapid Syracuse grads Fox could round up.

Then there were the five-minute commercial breaks, with dramatic highlight montages tacked onto each end. And, of course, the announcers, who remarked upon the late hour with head-scratching confusion -- as all annoucers tend to do in these days of longer and longer playoff tilts. Hey Joe, I'll tell you why the game is taking so long: Your network decided to squeeze a few more dollars (and therefore a few more commercials) into every half inning!

Pity the poor parent whose little Sox or Indians' fan had to be pulled out of bed this morning after staying up way past their school-night curfew. Pity them more when you consider that each of the first four World Series games is also scheduled for an 8 p.m. start.

And pity the major networks if they don't figure out sometime soon that baseball fans don't want to have to set aside 5 hours for every playoff game. And that real fans don't need overblown clips, endless commentary or Las Vegas-style graphics to make Game 7 exciting. Let the Fall Classic speak for itself -- or the sound of fans snoring is liable to become deafening.

Ok, So I Guess I Have to Write Something About Baseball

2007-10-22T09:18:00.000-04:00

This year's ALCS was eye-opening. It taught us a lot about the Indians, and not much of it was good. Make no mistake, Boston was the better team and we should give them credit, but the series was there for the taking for the Indians, and they blew three opportunities to take it. A few thoughts:

CC Sabathia is not a big-game pitcher

Plain and simple. I know that it is a small sample size to draw on, but he was brutal in each of his three postseason starts, including a horrible performance in game five when the Indians had a 3-1 lead, home fans behind them, and all of the momentum. Josh Beckett brought his "A" game and CC simply could not match him. Hey, maybe this is good news. Maybe the Indians now will be able to re-sign Sabathia, since his market value undoubtedly took a hit with this October's performance.

Don't be fooled into thinking that Kenny Lofton being held up at third was an important play.

It wasn't. A) The Red Sox scored seven more runs after that play happened, and B) if Casey Blake doesn't bounce into an easy double play, then it wouldn't have mattered.

Fausto Carmona needs to master a second pitch

As nasty as 95 mph sinkers are, when that is what you throw 95% of the time, Major League hitters are eventually going to be able to hit them.

I really hope that Travis Hafner is hurt

I'm saying I hope he is hurt because if he is healthy and as bad as he was in the clutch in this series, it is a really ominous sign.

The Red Sox will beat the Rockies in five

Yes, the Rockies were hot, but that was ages ago. By the time they throw the first pitch on Wednesday, Colorado will have been off for nearly two calendar weeks! That, plus the fact that National League was so horrible this year (even worse than last year if you can believe that) will be the difference. The Rockies, as hot as they were, won series against a Phillies team that barely got into the playoffs on the last day of the season, and a Diamondbacks team that was just plain awful.

NFL Thoughts

2007-10-22T07:47:00.001-04:00

Here are some of my thoughts about the NFL....

Why do the Detroit Lions wear those God awful black jerseys?....their Honolulu Blue jerseys are sweet.....I guess it is all about marketing and money.....

Next week the Giants-Dolphins game will be played in London, England.....the league is now tossing around the idea of possibly playing a Super Bowl overseas....there goes another American item being shipped overseas.....mayors beg to get the Super Bowl played in their city because of the economic boom that it brings....just like any other U.S. corporation, the NFL is thinking about turning its back on its U.S. customers....instead of moving the game to London, the NFL should consider playing it in a cold weather city like Washington D.C. or New York....better yet, play the game in Chicago or Green Bay like NFL Championship games of the 1950s and 60s.....

Denver has to be the luckiest team in the league.....all three of the victories have come down to a field goal by either Jason Elam or the opposing team’s kicker....and all three times it has gone the Broncos way....

I’m in an 8-team fantasy league, if the draft was held today, the first round picks would be: 1. Tom Brady; 2. Adrian Peterson; 3. LaDainian Tomlinson; 4. Joseph Addai; 5. Randy Moss; 6. Peyton Manning; 7. Maurice Jones-Drew; 8. Ronnie Brown (until he got hurt yesterday).....

Finally, I am leaving you with a little Monday wake-up of Jill Wagner....she is the babe who is in all those Mercury car commercials.....

As Breeders Cup Looms, Look for Value

2007-10-21T11:56:00.000-04:00

Granted, I'm sure most people reading this blog are slightly more interested in college football than the sport of kings, but as horse racing's biggest day draws near, I can think of several reasons why you should be very interested in the Breeders Cup this Saturday.

1) For the first time in recent memory, essentially all of the major players in the Triple Crown races of the spring will be running in the Classic, the 5 million dollar crowning jewel of BC day. Although Belmont champ Rags to Riches is out with an injury, Street Sense, Curlin, Hard Spun, Any Given Saturday, and Tiago will face there elders in a battle that will almost certainly determine horse of the year honors.

2) Most of the marquee matchups this weekend in college football take place either before or after the BC races are run. Granted, Florida does play Georgia at 3:30 (apparently there is some history there) and USC and Oregon mix it up at 3 PM, but compared to recent weeks there isn't too much on tap between 1 and 6:30 on Saturday. For those used to watching 10 TV's at a time at a bar on a Saturday afternoon, I certainly think the Breeders Cup will offer more excitement than Akron at Buffalo.

3) 24.63

What is this number, you ask? Only the average payout for a two dollar win bet at last year's Breeders Cup. That's right, on average the winning horse paid odds of more than 11 to 1. Many exactas paid hundreds if not thousands of dollars, and the pick-6 paid a shade under 2 million dollars. Not bad for picking a few horses to come in first, huh? The great thing about the BC is you can make a few small bets, have some fun, and potentially win a nice chunk of change.

Throughout the week, I am going to post my thoughts on each of the BC races, but for now, here are some of my thoughts on how you should go about handicapping this weekend.

A- Don't be afraid to take chances, and don't be afraid to take a stand against a favorite.

This is a day to determine champions, so the only way I would endorse a favorite is if I really believe that horse is a champion. There will be a couple of favorites that will win this weekend, but there will be many more that lose, and hitting even one of those races will make the difference between a winning day and a losing one.

B) Forget the speed bias

You are going to here a lot of "experts" talk about the enormous speed bias at Monmouth, and that horses are going to have a very tough timing winning from off of the pace. While I think Monmouth probably has a minor bias towards horses with early speed (as most dirt race tracks do), this track isn't exactly the old Keeneland strip or even Arlington Park from over the summer. Horses can and will win from off the pace, potentially at big odds because of this supposed bias that will scare bettors away. Monmouth reminds me a lot of Pimlico in that people insist there is a speed bias every Preakness, but the truth is the "bias" is more a result of the types of animals that fill most of the races at these tracks.

C) Go west, young man!

I am intrigued by some of the West Coast invaders this year from a value standpoint. From a speed figure perspective, many of the horses look a cut below their East Coast and Midwest counterparts, but I am not so sure that is case. Del Mar installed a new synthetic track over the summer and the results were, well, interesting. The track was much safer for the horses than the old dirt track, and that of course is the most important thing, but the track played very odd. Final times were considerably slower than at almost any other track in the country, even though the horses at Del Mar are some of the best in the world. The Pacific Classic was run in a comical 2:07, which is about 5-7 seconds slower than what would be expected for this kind of horse. Thats about 25-35 lengths slower than expected, or around the distance Secretariat run the Belmont by! Student Council earned a 99 Beyer for his efforts, but like pretty much every other race at Del Mar this summer, that number is at best an educated guess. The truth is, that race very well might have been run in a very swift time, or very slow, but there is really no way of knowing. For some reason, the speed figures awarded to horses at Del Mar were generally lower than normal, which leads me to believe that a lot of horses shipping from California might be overlooked.

I Can't Help Myself

2007-10-19T15:41:00.000-04:00

I'm 29 years old, but a good "Gameday" sign, even if it is completely juvenile, gets me every time.

So I would like to thank the Wizard of Odds for providing me with this bit of sophomoric humor

to end my work week and get me ready for another big football weekend.

Have a good weekend folks, and do yourself a favor and bet on Louisville tonight.

The Good, The Bad, The Ugly: NFL Primer Week 7

2007-10-19T14:38:00.001-04:00

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly is a weekly NFL primer. Nothing is sacred, not the players, not the coaches, and certainly not the betting lines.

The Good: New England Patriots.
It's true, the Patriots could qualify in any of these categories, but if you want to make money this week, or any other week this NFL season, this is your team. There's no line large enough, there's no home field advantage scary enough when this perfectly oiled football machine comes rolling through. Their closest game to date has been a 17 point victory at home against the Cleveland Browns, and it was only that close because they invited the practice team up for the entire second half. They cheat, they maim, they murder, the kill, but they do it all in the name of winning football games. Bill Bellichick is steering the ship straight for 16-0, and you'd be fooling yourself to think it's anything but a statement to the league about the recent cheating scandal. Did he cheat? Of course he did. Did he do it better than anyone? Without a doubt. His continuing domination of all that is the NFL will not end until he has inscribed his name into every single page of the NFL record book - for better or worse. All that being said, this team is so loaded it's wrong. Wasn't free agency supposed to limit things like this? They probably have the best player in the league at five different positions. Think USC 2004, ironically also includes a Patriots coach. Don't worry about betting for New England giving 17 on the road, they'll cover.

The Bad: Injuries galore.
If there's anything that's been a cold shower to the hot steamy soap opera that is the NFL this season, it's been the injuries to your best players. Lets for a second discount the fact that one team is ruling the entire league. You got your fantasy team all set up, there's no reason not to add people like Marvin Harrison (injured), Marc Bulger (injured), Stephen Jackson (injured), and Laurence Maroney (injured) to your squad. That is of course, hoping that they'll even play. All this is hindsight when they get injured two weeks after the season has begun. It's not only a downer for the fantasy mogul, though, it's a downer in the game. Even the most ardent hater of their rival team doesn't wish for players to go down with season ending injury, well, most of them. Sometimes it even makes the heartless drunks remember there's more to life than just football - and we just don't want that. We watch football to get away from real life, we watch it to make money, and we watch it because there are men doing manly things - hitting each other. So, the last thing we ever want to see is a limp body of Trent Green or Kevin Everett being carted off the field. Create better helmets, and put some anti-ACL-tearing garb on, we want to see the players play. Hopefully your fantasy teams get some much needed relief.

The Ugly: Coaches at the end of their ropes.
There are some coaches that may be coaching their last year in the current city, even if the contract may not say so. Example alpha: Seattle Seahawks. After a promising 3-1 start in one of the crappiest divisions ever consummated, they've dropped two straight. That wouldn't be so bad if they weren't completely embarrassed in two of those games - not scoring a point in one, and losing to a winless team at home in the other. It's not just this season that has been a disappointment to 'Hawks faithful, but the last one as well. After reaching a crescendo of their franchise in the Superbowl, the years following have already been labeled as failures. It doesn't look like this team is any more than average, and last years team was riddled with injuries that made consistent play a distant memory. Some believe it is time for a change of philosophies in the misty Northwest.

Ugliness has reared its ugly head in Cincinnati, and surprisingly it isn't one of frugal owner Brown, or even the prison guards giving temporary leave to the players. No, this time it's Superbowl ring wearing defensive specialist Marvin Lewis. His teams have climbed up the wrong mountain, and have now come tumbling down with great fervor. Instead of reaching for the Superbowl, they finished their ride by getting off at the AFC North title gate. Ever since the faithful day when Carson Palmer's knee was turned into mashed potatoes this team has gone to shreds. More importantly is the fact the defense has let this team down, not only with their arrests, and injuries but also with their downright bad play on the field. When Lewis got to Cincinnati it was thought that he would build from the ground up and create a franchise based on the Ravens. He hasn't done that. In no year has his defense done anything but be completely ordinary. This year, he's losing the team. Look for them to continue their downward spiral, which looks similar to flushing a toilet - the same place this franchise is returning to.

Injure Tom Brady [KSK]

Home of the brave

2007-10-18T15:47:00.000-04:00

The Indians have been inching closer to their first World Series appearance in 10 years by disposing of the Yankees, and bringing the Red Sox to the brink. Game 5 of the ALCS will take place at Jakob's Field tonight, but the games behind the game have already begun. To sing the national anthem will be country music star, Indians fan, and Ohio native Danielle Peck; coincidentally the most current ex-girlfriend of one Joshua Beckett. The Indians of course, insist that this is pure coincidence, and although no one believes them, they applaud the lengths to get the real home field advantage.

"She's from Ohio. Her entire family are Indians fans. We did not know anything about her connections to Beckett. The next day, we find out the rest of the story," said DiBiasio of Peck. "How are we supposed to know who Josh Beckett dates?"

Let this not overshadow in actuality a game that may be as compelling as we may see this post-season, which as a side note has not been viewer friendly. On one side we have the Indians, a team in a city that hasn't seen a World Series Championship since 1948. On the other side , the newly remodeled and currently curseless Boston Red Sox (unless The Curse of the Trotino comes into fruition). This is also the rematch of a Cy Young (dud) battle that was waged in Game 1, where Boston's best player this entire season threw another gem of a ballgame; while C.C. Sabathia managed to falter once again when the bright lights are on.

If this goes the way of the Indians, it will be a huge step to usher in an era of exciting young baseball in Cleveland. This team is built for the long haul, and we'd be looking at another four-to-five year stretch like we saw in the mid 90s. But even if Cleveland doesn't pull it out tonight, conventional wisdom has to believe they're still in good shape being up 3-2 for the rest of the series; they've beaten up every pitcher the Red Sox have except for the aforementioned Josh Beckett. It leaves them with another ace (Fausto Carmona), and ALCS game 3 winner Jake Westbrook, while Boston is left with Curt Schilling and possibly Japanese import and let down Daisuke Matsuzaka. Beyond the physical evidence and into the extraordinary, Boston has the edge, once coming back from a 3-0 deficit to win a series - and that's surely still fresh in their minds.

We'll see you at 8:21. This is of course after the Indians trot out their secret weapon in Peck, but just in time to see if it'll affect Josh Beckett.

Indians say choice for Game 5 singer 'coincidence' [ESPN.com]
Photo: Knoxnews

My EC Blogpoll Ballot - Week 8

2007-10-16T20:54:00.001-04:00

Ok, so I guess this is the first official post here at TSoF, so here goes:

We run a blogpoll over at Epic Carnival that appears on the blog every week. Before you check out the rankings of all of the carnies, check out the ballot that I filled in with my comments

1. Ohio State - I'll say this: They are the best of the country's unbeaten teams. They don't really play a tough team for at least another couple weeks.
2. Oklahoma - Call me crazy, but I still think this is a top team. The loss to Colorado is looking more and more like a fluke
3. Boston College - If they beat V Tech, I might move them to #2. But I don't think either will happen.
4. LSU - I told you they were beatable, but still a top 5 team
5. South Florida - Great story, but if you think they are beating OU or LSU on a neutral field, you have been watching a different football season from me.
6. South Carolina - I've said it before and I'll say it again: Spurrier=genius
7. Kentucky - I think they have a good shot to beat the Gators this weekend
8. Oregon - RIGHT NOW, the best team in the Pac-10, especially after Cal's late game brain-fart.
9. Arizona State - So untested. We'll see how good this team is in their next two games vs. Cal and Oregon.
10. Virginia Tech - Getting better and better each week. VT vs. BC should be a good one.
11. Kansas - How can you not get behind a team who's coach looks like this?
12. Florida - The Gator's schedule this year is bru-tal! Three top 10 teams on the road?
13. Cal - I still have no earthly idea what the hell their backup QB was thinking on that last play.
14. Missouri - Chase Daniel is still a sleeper for the Heisman. Good QB matchup coming up with Texas Tech visiting Columbia this week.
15. USC - Probably overrated. They are like Pam Anderson, they haven't looked good in a while but they still get credit for how they used to look.
16. Auburn - I gave up on them too early.
17. West Virginia - As soon as they play somebody tough and look good, I'll move them up. Until then, I'll continue to say this team has lost to the only decent team they have played.
18. Texas Tech - Basketball on grass lives in Lubbock once again. They'll lose against Mizzou.
19. Tennessee - Maybe we gave up on them too? Probably not, but we'll see.
20. Texas - Whatever.
21. Michigan - I know, I'm just as surprised as you are.

* * * * *
Dropped out:

Cincinnati - A nice team, but when you are borderline, you have to beat unranked teams at home.
Illinois - A nice team, but when you are borderline, you have to beat Iowa!
Georgia - I dropped them out of principle. First, you don't cover the spread against freaking Vanderbilt. Then, you celebrate by stomping on their logo after needing a last-second FG to win? This is the University of Georgia for crying out loud! You beat Vandy by 3 and you're celebrating?

* * * * *
Others receiving consideration:

Virginia - Tied for first in the ACC Coastal Division. Two games ahead of Miami. Weird, weird year this is.

* * * * *
If You're New To This, You Should Know That This Team Will Not Get Any Consideration Until They Beat Someone Decent:

Hawaii

Welcome to the Ship

2007-10-10T21:39:00.000-04:00

Welcome readers, to the Ship of Fools.

I have always had the dream of being the Dr. Dre of the blogosphere, and am in the process of assembling blogging talent the likes of which has never been seen before.

In the coming days you will be introduced to the rest of the Fools, and I trust that you will find them as insightful, opinionated, snarky, and as sarcastic, as anyone else blogging about sports in their boxers in their mom's basement.